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Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…
This paper studies optimal consumption and saving decisions under uncertainty about the transition dynamics of the economic environment. We consider a general optimal savings problem in which the exogenous state governing discounting,…
Understanding adaptive human driving behavior, in particular how drivers manage uncertainty, is of key importance for developing simulated human driver models that can be used in the evaluation and development of autonomous vehicles.…
We use an evolutionary game model to study the interplay between corporate environmental compliance and enforcement promoted by the policy maker in a country facing a pollution trap, i.e., a scenario in which the vast majority of firms do…
We study the emergence of conformity preferences in an environment in which agents choose effort under heterogeneous, possibly misspecified returns, and social interactions do not directly affect material payoffs. Some agents choose effort…
To achieve ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in time, the planning of future energy systems needs to accommodate societal preferences, e.g. low levels of acceptance for transmission expansion or onshore wind turbines, and…
We recently proposed a model coupling the evolution of the opinions of the individual with the local network topology. The opinion dynamics is based on the Bounded Confidence model. The social networks is based on a group concept where each…
Models of the convergence of opinion in social systems have been the subject of a considerable amount of recent attention in the physics literature. These models divide into two classes, those in which individuals form their beliefs based…
Uncertainties surrounding the energy transition often lead modelers to present large sets of scenarios that are challenging for policymakers to interpret and act upon. An alternative approach is to define a few qualitative storylines from…
Firms should keep capital to offer sufficient protection against the risks they are facing. In the insurance context methods have been developed to determine the minimum capital level required, but less so in the context of firms with…
This paper synthesizes and analyzes some important current and recent contributions to the theory of the firm under uncertainty. In so doing, it examines the production and hedging decisions of the competitive firm under a single source and…
We consider a hidden-action principal-agent model, in which actions require different amounts of effort, and the agent privately knows his ability that determines his cost of effort. We show that linear contracts admit approximation…
In order to increase their robustness against environmental fluctuations, many biological populations have developed bet-hedging mechanisms in which the population `bets' against the presence of prolonged favorable environmental conditions…
Different voters behave differently, different governments make different decisions, or different organizations are ruled differently. Many research questions important to political scientists concern choice behavior, which involves dealing…
An agent choosing between various actions tends to take the one with the lowest cost. But this choice is arguably too rigid (not adaptive) to be useful in complex situations, e.g., where exploration-exploitation trade-off is relevant in…
We extend the Exchange Fluctuation Theorem for energy exchange between thermal quantum systems beyond the assumption of molecular chaos, and describe the non-equilibrium exchange dynamics of correlated quantum states. The relation…
This work proposes a conformal approach for energy storage arbitrage to control the downside risk arising from imperfect price forecasts. Energy storage arbitrage relies solely on predictions of future market prices, while inaccurate price…
A multi-agent system operates in an uncertain environment about which agents have different and time varying beliefs that, as time progresses, converge to a common belief. A global utility function that depends on the realized state of the…
We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit-maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Due to noisy private information…
This paper studies the optimal investment behavior of renewable electricity producers in a competitive market, where both prices and installation costs are influenced by aggregate industry activity. We model the resulting crowding effects…