Related papers: Alternative expression for the maximum potential i…
Emanuel's concept of maximum potential intensity (E-PI) estimates the maximum velocity of tropical cyclones from environmental parameters assuming thermal wind (gradient-wind and hydrostatic balances) and slantwise neutrality in the free…
Emanuel's concept of Maximum Potential Intensity (E-PI) relates the maximum velocity $V_{\rm max}$ of tropical storms, assumed to be in gradient wind balance, to environmental parameters. Several studies suggested that the unbalanced flow…
While water lifting plays a recognized role in the global atmospheric power budget, estimates for this role in tropical cyclones vary from no effect to a major reduction in storm intensity. To better assess this impact, here we consider the…
The concept of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) is widely used in tropical cyclone research to estimate the minimum central pressure and the maximum velocity of tropical storms from environmental parameters. The MPI pressure derives from…
Genesis potential indices (GPIs) are widely used to understand the climatology of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the sign of projected future changes depends on how they incorporate environmental moisture. Recent theory combines…
The potential intensity (PI) theory of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a reasonable estimate of the steady-state intensity in a quiescent environment. The theory relies on the symmetric neutrality (SN) assumption, where absolute angular…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a great challenge in operational forecasting and contributes significantly to the development of major TCs. RI is commonly defined as an increase in the maximum sustained…
The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TC) is a controversial issue. Existing historical databases on the subject are not fully reliable, but a more fundamental hindrance is the lack…
In a recent paper Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) presented a derivation of an upper limit on maximum hurricane velocity at the surface. This derivation was based on a consideration of an infinitely narrow (differential) Carnot cycle with…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely…
Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the…
Tropical cyclones cause significant inland hazards, including wind damage and freshwater flooding, that depend strongly on how storm intensity evolves at and after landfall. Existing theoretical predictions for the time-dependent and…
Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are…
Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) provide unique probes of near-horizon dissipation through the tidal heating. We present a full Bayesian analysis of tidal heating in equatorial eccentric EMRIs by performing injection-recovery studies…
Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…
This article introduces an analytic formula for entraining convective available potential energy (ECAPE) with an entrainment rate that is determined directly from the storm environment. Extending previous formulas derived in Peters et al.…
A new potential vorticity is derived by using a specific entropy formulation expressed in terms of a moist-air entropy potential temperature. The new formulation is compared with Ertel's version and with others based on virtual and…
The theory of Extreme Physical Information (EPI) is used to deduce a probability density function (PDF) of a system that exhibits a power law tail. The computed PDF is useful to study and fit several observed distributions in complex…
Many partially-successful attempts have been made to find the most natural discrete-variable version of Shannon's entropy power inequality (EPI). We develop an axiomatic framework from which we deduce the natural form of a discrete-variable…
The large-scale features of the global ocean circulation and the sensitivity of these features with respect to forcing changes are critically dependent upon the influence of the mesoscale eddy field. One such feature, observed in numerical…