Related papers: GDP Forecasting using Payments Transaction Data
Despite the plethora of financial services and products on the market nowadays, there is a lack of such services and products designed especially for the low-wage population. Approximately 30% of the U.S. working population engage in…
Optimization and expansion are two modes of staged evolution of complex systems where macroscopic observables change at a decreasing, respectively increasing, rate. A prime example of evolutionary expansion, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)…
In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…
By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the…
Level-sensitive latches are widely used in high- performance designs. For such circuits efficient statistical timing analysis algorithms are needed to take increasing process vari- ations into account. But existing methods solving this…
The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic output. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been…
We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modelling of the economic data, which are made…
The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income…
The GDP growth of national economies is modelled by the logistic function. Applying it on the GDP data of the World Bank till the year 2020, we forecast the outcome of the competitive GDP growth of Japan, Germany, UK and India, all of whose…
We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national savings rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960-2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate…
In this study, we examine the fluctuation in the value of the Great Britain Pound (GBP). We focus particularly on its relationship with the United States Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) currency pairs. Utilizing data from June 15, 2018, to…
Financial institutions obtain enormous amounts of data about user transactions and money transfers, which can be considered as a large graph dynamically changing in time. In this work, we focus on the task of predicting new interactions in…
The correlation between G7 countries has been analysed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product using different distance functions i.e. discrete, linear correlation and distribution distance. The distance matrics is analysed by various graph…
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…
The paper deals with the construction of a synthetic indicator of economic growth, obtained by projecting a quarterly measure of aggregate economic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), into the space spanned by a finite number of…
Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable.…
A society or country with income equally distributed among its people is truly a fiction! The phenomena of socioeconomic inequalities have been plaguing mankind from times immemorial. We are interested in gaining an insight about the…
Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40…
A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…
Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…