Related papers: Exponential Kernels with Latency in Hawkes Process…
Trade executions for major stocks come in bursts of activity, which can be partly attributed to the presence of self- and mutual excitations endogenous to the system. In this paper, we study transaction reports for five FTSE 100 stocks. We…
Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal…
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous…
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control…
Obtaining reliable, adaptive confidence sets for prediction functions (hypotheses) is a central challenge in sequential decision-making tasks, such as bandits and model-based reinforcement learning. These confidence sets typically rely on…
Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…
We construct a two-tailed peak-over-threshold Hawkes model that captures asymmetric self- and cross-excitation in and between left- and right-tail extreme values within a time series. We demonstrate its applicability by investigating…
Modern computer systems are awash in a sea of asynchronous events. There is an increasing need for a declarative language that can permit business users to specify complex event-processing rules. Such rules should be able to correlate…
Deployment of optimization algorithms over communication networks face challenges associated with time delays and corruptions. Fixed time delays can destabilize popular gradient-based algorithms, and this degradation is exacerbated by…
We consider learning in decentralized heterogeneous networks: agents seek to minimize a convex functional that aggregates data across the network, while only having access to their local data streams. We focus on the case where agents seek…
This paper proposes an Extended State-Dependent Hawkes Process (ExsdHawkes) to model the intricate dynamics of Limit Order Books (LOBs). Our theoretical contribution lies in relaxing traditional constraints by allowing for state…
Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact…
The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for the detection of either favored or avoided distances between genomic events along DNA sequences. These events are modeled by a Hawkes process. The biological problem is actually complex…
Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…
In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of nearly unstable Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm strictly greater than one and close to one as time goes to infinity. We find that,the scaling size determines…
The prevailing assumption of an exponential decay in large language model (LLM) reliability with sequence length, predicated on independent per-token error probabilities, posits an inherent limitation for long autoregressive outputs. Our…
We propose a novel approach to marked Hawkes kernel inference which we name the moment-based neural Hawkes estimation method. Hawkes processes are fully characterized by their first and second order statistics through a Fredholm integral…
The exponential time differencing (ETD) method allows using a large time step to efficiently evolve the stiff system such as Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) neural networks. For pulse-coupled HH networks, the synaptic spike times cannot be…
We provide some theoretical extensions and a calibration protocol for our former dynamic optimal execution model. The Hawkes parameters and the propagator are estimated independently on financial data from stocks of the CAC40.…