Related papers: Bayesian inference with tmbstan for a state-space …

Marginal-likelihood based model-selection, even though promising, is rarely used in deep learning due to estimation difficulties. Instead, most approaches rely on validation data, which may not be readily available. In this work, we present…

In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…

Bayesian inference with stochastic models is often difficult because their likelihood functions involve high-dimensional integrals. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) avoids evaluating the likelihood function and instead infers model…

We describe a method for Bayesian optimization by which one may incorporate data from multiple systems whose quantitative interrelationships are unknown a priori. All general (nonreal-valued) features of the systems are associated with…

Bayesian neural network posterior distributions have a great number of modes that correspond to the same network function. The abundance of such modes can make it difficult for approximate inference methods to do their job. Recent work has…

Optimal state estimation for linear discrete-time systems is considered. Motivated by the literature on differential privacy, the measurements are assumed to be corrupted by Laplace noise. The optimal least mean square error estimate of the…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a well-established statistical tool for modeling complex nonlinear relationships between covariates and a response assumed to have a conditional distribution in the exponential family. In this article,…

Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it…

Stochastic systems in biology often exhibit substantial variability within and between cells. This variability, as well as having dramatic functional consequences, provides information about the underlying details of the system's behaviour.…

varstan is an \proglang{R} package for Bayesian analysis of time series models using \proglang{Stan}. The package offers a dynamic way to choose a model, define priors in a wide range of distributions, check model's fit, and forecast with…

State-space mixed-frequency vector autoregressions are now widely used for nowcasting. Despite their popularity, estimating such models can be computationally intensive, especially for large systems with stochastic volatility. To tackle the…

Bayesian neural networks often approximate the weight-posterior with a Gaussian distribution. However, practical posteriors are often, even locally, highly non-Gaussian, and empirical performance deteriorates. We propose a simple parametric…

Probabilistic model checking for systems with large or unbounded state space is a challenging computational problem in formal modelling and its applications. Numerical algorithms require an explicit representation of the state space, while…

Bayesian inference tasks continue to pose a computational challenge. This especially holds for spatial-temporal modeling where high-dimensional latent parameter spaces are ubiquitous. The methodology of integrated nested Laplace…

Scientific knowledge expands by observing the world, hypothesizing some theories about it, and testing them against collected data. When those theories take the form of statistical models, statistical analyses are involved in the process of…

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) is a well-known and popular technique for spatial modeling with a user-friendly interface in the R-INLA package. Unfortunately, only a certain class of latent Gaussian models are amenable…

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Laplace approximations are popular techniques for endowing deep networks with epistemic uncertainty estimates as they can be applied without altering the predictions of the trained network, and they scale to large models and datasets. While…

When dealing with datasets containing a billion instances or with simulations that require a supercomputer to execute, computational resources become part of the equation. We can improve the efficiency of learning and inference by…