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Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature focusing on this topic, there are few studies dealing with the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-03-08 Giacomo Bonciolini , Dominik Ebi , Edouard Boujo , Nicolas Noiray

Learning governing equations from a family of data sets which share the same physical laws but differ in bifurcation parameters is challenging. This is due, in part, to the wide range of phenomena that could be represented in the data sets…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-07 Hayden Schaeffer , Giang Tran , Rachel Ward

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is a critical challenge in robust decision-making that seeks to assess the performance of a new policy using data collected under a different policy. However, the existing OPE methodologies suffer from several…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-11 Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq

We present a method for determining optimal modes of operation for autonomously oscillating systems with uncertain parameters. In a typical application of the method, a nonlinear dynamical system is optimized with respect to an economic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Darya Kastsian , Martin Mönnigmann

Uncertainty quantification is a key aspect in many tasks such as model selection/regularization, or quantifying prediction uncertainties to perform active learning or OOD detection. Within credal approaches that consider modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Tuan-Anh Vu , Sébastien Destercke , Frédéric Pichon

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Yusuf Sale , Viktor Bengs , Michele Caprio , Eyke Hüllermeier

Ordinary Differential Equations are widespread tools to model chemical, physical, biological process but they usually rely on parameters which are of critical importance in terms of dynamic and need to be estimated directly from the data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-29 Nicolas Brunel , Quentin Clairon

In differential equation discovery algorithms, numerical differentiation is usually a fixed preliminary step. Current methods improve robustness with data subsampling and sparsity but often ignore the variability from the differentiation…

Symbolic Computation · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Maria Khilchuk , Ilya Markov , Alexander Hvatov

Filtering-based probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), also known as ODE filters, have been established as efficient methods for quantifying numerical uncertainty in the solution of ODEs. In practical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-02 Dingling Yao , Filip Tronarp , Nathanael Bosch

Anderson localization is a famous wave phenomenon that describes the absence of diffusion of waves in a disordered medium. Here we generalize the landscape theory of Anderson localization to general elliptic operators and complex boundary…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-11-09 Chen Jia , Ziqi Liu , Zhimin Zhang

A method is suggested to decompose the statistical and systematic uncertainties from the residues between the calculation of a theoretical model and the observed data. The residues and the parameters of the model can be obtained through the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2016-09-13 Cenxi Yuan

Augmenting mechanistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) models with machine-learnable structures is an novel approach to create highly accurate, low-dimensional models of engineering systems incorporating both expert knowledge and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Sandor Beregi , David A. W. Barton , Djamel Rezgui , Simon A. Neild

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Bifurcations mark qualitative changes of long-term behavior in dynamical systems and can often signal sudden ("hard") transitions or catastrophic events (divergences). Accurately locating them is critical not just for deeper understanding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yorgos M. Psarellis , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

Bifurcations of dynamical systems, described by a second order differential equations and by an impact condition are studied. It is shown that the variation of parameters when the number of impacts of a periodic solution increases, leads to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-06-23 Sergey Kryzhevich

We consider discrete-time one-dimensional random dynamical systems with bounded noise, which generate an associated set-valued dynamical system. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a discontinuous bifurcation of a minimal…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-04-09 Christian Kuehn , Giuseppe Malavolta , Martin Rasmussen

The bifurcation method is a way to do rare event sampling -- to estimate the probability of events that are too rare to be found by direct simulation. We describe the bifurcation method and use it to estimate the transition rate of a double…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-06-06 Hongliang Liu , Jonathan Goodman

In this work, we introduce a novel Deep Learning-based method to perceive the environment of a vehicle based on radar scans while accounting for uncertainties in its predictions. The environment of the host vehicle is segmented into equally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Marco Braun , Moritz Luszek , Jan Siegemund , Kevin Kollek , Anton Kummert

This paper investigates the different behaviors of the process equation and parameters of their occurrences. The process equation is a multistable one dimensional map with nonlinear feedback and can show various behaviors such as period…

We address the control of Partial Differential equations (PDEs) with unknown parameters. Our objective is to devise an efficient algorithm capable of both identifying and controlling the unknown system. We assume that the desired PDE is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Alessandro Alla , Agnese Pacifico