Related papers: Estimating functional parameters for understanding…

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…

As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…

This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…

The fast transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide has made this virus the most important challenge of year 2020. Many mitigation policies have been imposed by the governments at different regional levels (country, state, county, and city) to…

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…

The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling…

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to…

Understanding influencing factors is essential for the surveillance and prevention of infectious diseases, and the factors are likely to vary spatially and temporally as the disease progresses. Taking daily cases and deaths data during the…

The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…

Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model…

During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, quarantine measures were…

Recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 has affected all of our lives in one way or the other. While medical researchers are working hard to find a cure and doctors/nurses to attend the affected individuals, measures such as…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…

The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan has been increasing day by day and has had a serious impact on the society especially after the declaration of the state of emergency on April 7, 2020. This study…

The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…

As of November 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases is increasing rapidly in many countries. In Europe, the virus spread slowed considerably in the late spring due to strict lockdown, but a second wave of the pandemic grew throughout the…

We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…