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We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-04-12 Yufei Zhao

We consider random vectors $X$ that satisfy the equation in law $X=AX+B$, where $A$ is a given random diagonal matrix and $B$ a given random vector, both independent of $X$. It is well known by the works of Kesten and Goldie that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Ewa Damek , Sebastian Mentemeier

In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-11 Yaonan Jin , Yingkai Li , Yining Wang , Yuan Zhou

Let $\eta_{1},\eta_2,...$ be independent (not necessarily identically distributed) zero-mean random variables (r.v.'s) such that $|\eta_i|\le1$ almost surely for all $i$, and let $Z$ stand for a standard normal r.v. Let $a_1,a_2,...$ be any…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-17 Iosif Pinelis

With $\xi$ the number of triangles in the usual (Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi) random graph $G(m,p)$, $p>1/m$ and $\eta>0$, we show (for some $C_{\eta}>0$) $$\Pr(\xi> (1+\eta)\E \xi) < \exp[-C_{\eta}\min{m^2p^2\log(1/p),m^3p^3}].$$ This is tight up to…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-30 Bobby DeMarco , Jeff Kahn

Following results of Kemperman and Pinelis, we show that if $X$ and $Y$ are real valued random variables such that $\mathbb{E}\left\vert Y\right\vert<\infty$ and for all non-decreasing convex $\varphi:\mathbb{R}\rightarrow [0,\infty)$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-06 Daniel J. Fresen

An infinite convergent sum of independent and identically distributed random variables discounted by a multiplicative random walk is called perpetuity, because of a possible actuarial application. We give three disjoint groups of sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-01 Dariusz Buraczewski , Piotr Dyszewski , Alexander Iksanov , Alexander Marynych

In this note a two sided bound on the tail probability of sums of independent, and either symmetric or nonnegative, random variables is obtained. We utilize a recent result by Lata{\l}a on bounds on moments of such sums. We also give a new…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Paweł Hitczenko , Stephen Montgomery-Smith

A survey is given of some Chernoff type bounds for the tail probabilities P(X-EX > a) and P(X-EX < a) when X is a random variable that can be written as a sum of indicator variables that are either independent or negatively related. Most…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-05 Svante Janson

We obtain decay rates of probabilities of tails of polynomials in several independent random variables with heavy tails and derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of such polynomials

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-26 Yuri Kifer , S. R. S. Varadhan

Let $n,k$ be positive integers such that $n\geq k$, and let $H$ be a hypergeometric random variable counting the number of black marbles in a sample without replacement of size $k$ from an urn that contains $i\in \{1,\ldots, n\}$ black and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-24 Jianhang Ai , Christos Pelekis

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Christian Y. Robert , Johan Segers

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

Let $X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n}$ be $n$ real-valued dependent random variables. With motivation from Mitra and Resnick (2009), we derive the tail asymptotic expansion for the weighted sum of order statistics $X_{1:n}\leq \cdots \leq X_{n:n}$ of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-07 Enkelejd Hashorva , Jinzhi Li

We construct a new tail bound for the sum of independent random variables for situations in which the expected value of the sum is known and each random variable lies within a specified interval, which may be different for each variable.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Jackson Loper , Jeffrey Regier

We reconsider a classical, well-studied problem from applied probability. This is the max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums, and the originality is because we manage to include interdependence among the primary random variables, as…

We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-22 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

Let $S_n$ be the sum of independent random variables with distribution $F$. Under the assumption that $-\log(1-F(x))$ is slowly varying, conditions for $$ \lim_{n\to\infty}\sup_{s\ge t_n}\left|{P[S_n>s]\over n(1-F(s))}-1\right| =0 $$ are…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-30 Daren B. H. Cline , Tailen Hsing

We present order of magnitude estimates for the quantiles of non-negative linear combinations of non-negative random variables, as well as deviation inequalities for general linear combinations of independent random variables, under the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Daniel J. Fresen

The well-known "Janson's inequality" gives Poisson-like upper bounds for the lower tail probability \Pr(X \le (1-\eps)\E X) when X is the sum of dependent indicator random variables of a special form. We show that, for large deviations,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Svante Janson , Lutz Warnke