Related papers: "Pass the Buck" on a Rooted Tree
We consider numerical schemes for root finding of noisy responses through generalizing the Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm (PBA) to the more practical context where the sampling distribution is unknown and location-dependent. As in…
Generalized Geography is a combinatorial game played on a directed graph. Players take turns moving a token from vertex to vertex, deleting a vertex after moving the token away from it. A player unable to move loses. It is well known that…
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
One problem of wide interest involves estimating expected crossing-times. Several tools have been developed to solve this problem beginning with the works of Wald and the theory of sequential analysis. An extension of his approach is…
Ultimate Tic-Tac-Toe is a variant of the popular Tic-Tac-Toe game. Two players compete to win three aligned "fields," with each field constituting its own miniature tic-tac-toe game. Each move determines which field the next player must…
Spanning Centrality is a measure used in network analysis to determine the importance of an edge in a graph based on its contribution to the connectivity of the entire network. Specifically, it quantifies how critical an edge is in terms of…
We introduce a betting game, where the gambler aims to guess the last success epoch from past observed data. The player may bet on the event that no further successes occur, or choose a `trap' which is any span of future times. In the…
The objective of the present study is to present a computational model of the motion of a single athlete in a team and to compare the resulting trajectory with experimental data obtained in the field during competitions by match analysis…
Tree-based ensemble methods such as random forests, gradient-boosted trees, and Bayesianadditive regression trees have been successfully used for regression problems in many applicationsand research studies. In this paper, we study ensemble…
Simple stochastic games are turn-based 2.5-player zero-sum graph games with a reachability objective. The problem is to compute the winning probability as well as the optimal strategies of both players. In this paper, we compare the three…
The concept of "stochastic precedence" between two real-valued random variables has often emerged in different applied frameworks. In this paper we consider a slightly more general, and completely natural, concept of stochastic precedence…
In this paper, we provide a polynomial time algorithm to calculate the probability of a {\it ranked} gene tree topology for a given species tree, where a ranked tree topology is a tree topology with the internal vertices being ordered. The…
We investigate the probability of scoring a point when playing the basketball shooting game called "Horse". We show that under the Traditional Rules, it is optimal to choose very easy shots. We propose alternative rules called Pops Rules,…
We study a two-player game played on undirected graphs called {\sc Trail Trap}, which is a variant of a game known as {\sc Partizan Edge Geography}. One player starts by choosing any edge and moving a token from one endpoint to the other;…
Probabilistic game structures combine both nondeterminism and stochasticity, where players repeatedly take actions simultaneously to move to the next state of the concurrent game. Probabilistic alternating simulation is an important tool to…
The problem of how to allocate to states the seats in the US House of Representatives is the most studied instance of what is termed the `apportionment problem'. We propose a new method of apportionment which is stochastic, which meets the…
Poker is a challenging problem for artificial intelligence, with non-deterministic dynamics, partial observability, and the added difficulty of unknown adversaries. Modelling all of the uncertainties in this domain is not an easy task. In…
The random walk with hyperbolic probabilities that we are introducing is an example of stochastic diffusion in a one-dimensional heterogeneous media. Although driven by site-dependent one-step transition probabilities, the process retains…
We consider three different schemes for signal routing on a tree. The vertices of the tree represent transceivers that can transmit and receive signals, and are equipped with i.i.d. weights representing the strength of the transceivers. The…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a set of techniques for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible. This work presents a simple yet effective ABC algorithm based on the…