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To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Max A. Little , Reham Badawy

Stepped-wedge designs are increasingly used in randomized experiments to accommodate logistical and ethical constraints by staggering treatment roll-out over time. Despite their popularity, existing analytical methods largely rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Liangbo Lyu , Bingkai Wang

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

N-of-1 experiments, where a unit serves as its own control and treatment in different time windows, have been used in certain medical contexts for decades. However, due to effects that accumulate over long time windows and interventions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-25 Tengyuan Liang , Benjamin Recht

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Minna Genbäck , Xavier de Luna

In this paper, we propose a parametrised factor that enables inference on Gaussian networks where linear dependencies exist among the random variables. Our factor representation is effectively a generalisation of traditional Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-05 J. C. Schoeman , C. E. van Daalen , J. A. du Preez

Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Jana Kleinemeier , Nadja Klein

We examine study designs for extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population. Specifically, we consider nested trial designs, where randomized individuals are nested within a sample…

Design-based simulations - procedures that hold realized outcomes fixed and generate variation by resampling treatment assignment or shocks - are widely used in both methodological and applied work to assess inference procedures. This paper…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-13 Bruno Ferman

Consider a situation with two treatments, the first of which is randomized but the second is not, and the multifactor version of this. Interest is in treatment effects, defined using standard factorial notation. We define estimators for the…

Models with latent factors recently attract a lot of attention. However, most investigations focus on linear regression models and thus cannot capture nonlinearity. To address this issue, we propose a novel Factor Augmented Single-Index…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-07 Yanmei Shi , Meiling Hao , Yanlin Tang , Heng Lian , Xu Guo

Considering the increasing size of available data, the need for statistical methods that control the finite sample bias is growing. This is mainly due to the frequent settings where the number of variables is large and allowed to increase…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-12 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser

We consider continuous-time models with a large panel of moment conditions, where the structural parameter depends on a set of characteristics, whose effects are of interest. The leading example is the linear factor model in financial…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-12-04 Yuan Liao , Xiye Yang

One of the goals of causal inference is to generalize from past experiments and observational data to novel conditions. While it is in principle possible to eventually learn a mapping from a novel experimental condition to an outcome of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-10 Gecia Bravo-Hermsdorff , David S. Watson , Jialin Yu , Jakob Zeitler , Ricardo Silva

In various applications of regression analysis, in addition to errors in the dependent observations also errors in the predictor variables play a substantial role and need to be incorporated in the statistical modeling process. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-03 Katharina Proksch , Nicolai Bissantz , Hajo Holzmann

Experimental designs are fundamental for estimating causal effects. In some fields, within-subjects designs, which expose participants to both control and treatment at different time periods, are used to address practical and logistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Justin Ho , Jonathan Min

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-11 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

In observational studies, the causal effect of a treatment may be confounded with variables that are related to both the treatment and the outcome of interest. In order to identify a causal effect, such studies often rely on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-17 Emma Persson , Jenny Häggström , Ingeborg Waernbaum , Xavier de Luna

We posit that autoregressive flow models are well-suited to performing a range of causal inference tasks - ranging from causal discovery to making interventional and counterfactual predictions. In particular, we exploit the fact that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-28 Ricardo Pio Monti , Ilyes Khemakhem , Aapo Hyvarinen

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar