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Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Christopher B. Boyer , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson

In spatial regression models, collinearity between covariates and spatial effects can lead to significant bias in effect estimates. This problem, known as spatial confounding, is encountered modelling forestry data to assess the effect of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-02 Emiko Dupont , Simon N. Wood , Nicole Augustin

In prediction problems with more predictors than observations, it can sometimes be helpful to use a joint probability model, $\pi(Y,X)$, rather than a purely conditional model, $\pi(Y \mid X)$, where $Y$ is a scalar response variable and…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-17 P. Richard Hahn , Sayan Mukherjee , Carlos Carvalho

Including a large number of predictors in the imputation model underlying a multiple imputation (MI) procedure is one of the most challenging tasks imputers face. A variety of high-dimensional MI techniques can help, but there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-15 Edoardo Costantini , Kyle M. Lang , Tim Reeskens , Klaas Sijtsma

Traditionally model averaging has been viewed as an alternative to model selection with the ultimate goal to incorporate the uncertainty associated with the model selection process in standard errors and confidence intervals by using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 Michael Schomaker , Christian Heumann

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

In this paper we look at popular fairness methods that use causal counterfactuals. These methods capture the intuitive notion that a prediction is fair if it coincides with the prediction that would have been made if someone's race, gender…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-12 Jake Fawkes , Robin Evans , Dino Sejdinovic

We propose a new variable selection procedure for a functional linear model with multiple scalar responses and multiple functional predictors. This method is based on basis expansions of the involved functional predictors and coefficients…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-03 Alban Mina Mbina , Guy Martial Nkiet

We introduce an algorithm which, in the context of nonlinear regression on vector-valued explanatory variables, chooses those combinations of vector components that provide best prediction. The algorithm devotes particular attention to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-03 Frédéric Ferraty , Peter Hall

Representational Similarity Analysis (RSA) is a popular method for analyzing neuroimaging and behavioral data. Here we evaluate the accuracy and reliability of RSA in the context of model selection, and compare it to that of regression.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Chuanji Gao , Gang Chen , Svetlana V. Shinkareva , Rutvik H. Desai

The modeling of complex systems such as ecological or socio-economic systems can be very challenging. Although various modeling approaches exist, they are generally not compatible and mutually consistent, and empirical data often do not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2010-07-19 Dirk Helbing

The usage of machine learning methods in traditional surveys including official statistics, is still very limited. Therefore, we propose a predictor supported by these algorithms, which can be used to predict any population or subpopulation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Tomasz Żądło , Adam Chwila

A significant level of stigma and inequality exists in mental healthcare, especially in under-served populations. Inequalities are reflected in the data collected for scientific purposes. When not properly accounted for, machine learning…

Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is…

Machine Learning (ML) research has increased substantially in recent years, due to the success of predictive modeling across diverse application domains. However, well-known barriers exist when attempting to deploy ML models in high-stakes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Nathan Wolfrath , Joel Wolfrath , Hengrui Hu , Anjishnu Banerjee , Anai N. Kothari

The logistic regression model is one of the most powerful statistical methods for the analysis of binary data. The logistic regression allows to use a set of covariates to explain the binary responses. The mixture of logistic regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-08 Elsayed Ghanem , Armin Hatefi , Hamid Usefi

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Selective rationalization has become a common mechanism to ensure that predictive models reveal how they use any available features. The selection may be soft or hard, and identifies a subset of input features relevant for prediction. The…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-12-17 Mo Yu , Shiyu Chang , Yang Zhang , Tommi S. Jaakkola

Decision trees are widely used for interpretable machine learning due to their clearly structured reasoning process. However, this structure belies a challenge we refer to as predictive equivalence: a given tree's decision boundary can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Hayden McTavish , Zachery Boner , Jon Donnelly , Margo Seltzer , Cynthia Rudin

Conventional inclusion criteria used in osteoarthritis clinical trials are not very effective in selecting patients who would benefit from a therapy being tested. Typically majority of selected patients show no or limited disease…