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We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

In this paper we review important aspects of semiparametric theory and empirical processes that arise in causal inference problems. We begin with a brief introduction to the general problem of causal inference, and go on to discuss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-25 Edward H. Kennedy

The Wasserstein distance is a distance between two probability distributions and has recently gained increasing popularity in statistics and machine learning, owing to its attractive properties. One important approach to extending this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-14 Ryo Okano , Masaaki Imaizumi

The standard approach to causal modelling especially in social and health sciences is the potential outcomes framework due to Neyman and Rubin. In this framework, observations are thought to be drawn from a distribution over variables of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Benedikt Höltgen , Robert C. Williamson

Estimation of causal effects is fundamental in situations were the underlying system will be subject to active interventions. Part of building a causal inference engine is defining how variables relate to each other, that is, defining the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-02 Sergio Garrido , Stanislav S. Borysov , Jeppe Rich , Francisco C. Pereira

At the heart of causal structure learning from observational data lies a deceivingly simple question: given two statistically dependent random variables, which one has a causal effect on the other? This is impossible to answer using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Nikolaos Nikolaou , Konstantinos Sechidis

We propose a framework for determining whether the causal dependence of an outcome $Y$ on a covariate $X$ changes at a given time point, given confounders $\boldsymbol{Z}$. For instance, in financial markets, the effect of a market…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Shakeel Gavioli-Akilagun , Kieran Wood , Francesco Quinzan

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can…

Learning conditional densities and identifying factors that influence the entire distribution are vital tasks in data-driven applications. Conventional approaches work mostly with summary statistics, and are hence inadequate for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 Chengliang Tang , Nathan Lenssen , Ying Wei , Tian Zheng

Causal inference on populations embedded in social networks poses technical challenges, since the typical no interference assumption frequently does not hold. Existing methods developed in the context of network interference rely upon the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Vanessa McNealis , Erica E. M. Moodie , Nema Dean

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Inference of causality is central in nonlinear time series analysis and science in general. A popular approach to infer causality between two processes is to measure the information flow between them in terms of transfer entropy. Using…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-04-16 Jie Sun , Erik M. Bollt

Discovery of an accurate causal Bayesian network structure from observational data can be useful in many areas of science. Often the discoveries are made under uncertainty, which can be expressed as probabilities. To guide the use of such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-12-27 Fattaneh Jabbari , Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper

While probabilistic models describe the dependence structure between observed variables, causal models go one step further: they predict, for example, how cognitive functions are affected by external interventions that perturb neuronal…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-12 Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has…

Heckerman (1993) defined causal independence in terms of a set of temporal conditional independence statements. These statements formalized certain types of causal interaction where (1) the effect is independent of the order that causes are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 David Heckerman , John S. Breese

Over the past few decades, addressing "spatial confounding" has become a major topic in spatial statistics. However, the literature has provided conflicting definitions, and many proposed solutions are tied to specific analysis models and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-14 Brian Gilbert , Abhirup Datta , Joan A. Casey , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Duncan A. Clark , Mark S. Handcock

Decentralized data sources are prevalent in real-world applications, posing a formidable challenge for causal inference. These sources cannot be consolidated into a single entity owing to privacy constraints. The presence of dissimilar data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Thanh Vinh Vo , Young lee , Tze-Yun Leong
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