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This paper studies the identification of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) under unconfoundedness when covariate overlap is partial. A formal diagnostic is proposed to characterize empirical support -- the subset of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-11 Mengqi Li

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

In Regression Discontinuity (RD) design, self-selection leads to different distributions of covariates on two sides of the policy intervention, which essentially violates the continuity of potential outcome assumption. The standard RD…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-22 Sida Peng , Yang Ning

We develop a finite-sample optimal estimator for regression discontinuity design when the outcomes are bounded, including binary outcomes as the leading case. Our estimator achieves minimax mean squared error among linear shrinkage…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Takuya Ishihara , Masayuki Sawada , Kohei Yata

The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE estimators have been developed with advancements in machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Siyi Wang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

Covariate adjustment is a ubiquitous method used to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. Assuming a known graphical structure of the data generating model, recent results give graphical criteria for optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Alexander Mangulad Christgau , Anton Rask Lundborg , Niels Richard Hansen

Estimating how a treatment affects units individually, known as heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, is an essential part of decision-making and policy implementation. The accumulation of large amounts of data in many domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-23 Michael C. Burkhart , Gabriel Ruiz

Regression discontinuity (RD) analysis with latent variables as introduced by Morell et al. (2025), offers a useful augmentation of the conventional RD by incorporating measurement model. This approach is particularly relevant in education…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Monica Morell , Youngjin Han , Muwon Kwon , Youjin Sung , Yang Liu , Ji Seung Yang

We study the problem of constructing an estimator of the average treatment effect (ATE) with observational data. The celebrated doubly-robust, augmented-IPW (AIPW) estimator generally requires consistent estimation of both nuisance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-13 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H. Kennedy , Oliver Dukes , Sivaraman Balakrishnan

Deep learning has achieved significant advancements in medical image segmentation, but existing models still face challenges in accurately segmenting lesion regions. The main reason is that some lesion regions in medical images have unclear…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Lexin Fang , Yunyang Xu , Xiang Ma , Xuemei Li , Caiming Zhang

The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental approach used to estimate the causal effects of an intervention assigned based on a cutoff criterion. RDD exploits the idea that close to the cutoff units below and above are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-02 Julia Kowalska , Mark van de Wiel , Stéphanie van der Pas

We study regression discontinuity designs in which many predetermined covariates, possibly much more than the number of observations, can be used to increase the precision of treatment effect estimates. We consider a two-step estimator…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-06 Alexander Kreiß , Christoph Rothe

Incrementality experiments compare customers exposed to a marketing action designed to increase sales to those randomly assigned to a control group. These experiments suffer from noisy responses which make precise estimation of the average…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-11 Ron Berman , Elea McDonnell Feit

Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-26 Steven Siwei Ye , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

The Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) is a common causal parameter defined as the average effect of a binary treatment among the subset of the population receiving treatment. We propose a novel family of parameters, Generalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-28 Herbert Susmann , Nicholas T. Williams , Kara E. Rudolph , Iván Díaz

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li

One of the most significant challenges in Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation is the statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Cat P. Le , Vahid Tarokh

In the presence of treatment effect heterogeneity, the average treatment effect (ATE) in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) may differ from the average effect of the same treatment if applied to a target population of interest. If all…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-02 Trang Quynh Nguyen , Cyrus Ebnesajjad , Stephen R. Cole , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Conventionally, regression discontinuity analysis contrasts a univariate regression's limits as its independent variable, $R$, approaches a cut-point, $c$, from either side. Alternative methods target the average treatment effect in a small…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-21 Adam C. Sales , Ben B. Hansen