Related papers: Rao-Blackwellization in the MCMC era

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…

The purpose of this note is to highlight and address inaccuracies in the convergence guarantees of SCvx, a nonconvex trajectory optimization algorithm proposed by Mao et al. (arXiv:1804.06539), and make connections to relevant prior work.…

We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo…

An indirect, hybrid Monte Carlo discretization of general relativistic kinetic theory suitable for the development of numerical schemes for radiation transport is presented. The discretization is based on surface flux estimators obtained…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the main workhorses of probabilistic inference, but it is notoriously hard to measure the quality of approximate posterior samples. This challenge is particularly salient in black box inference…

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Belief Propagation (BP) are the most popular algorithms for computational inference in Graphical Models (GM). In principle, MCMC is an exact probabilistic method which, however, often suffers from…

Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…

We propose a new time quantifiable Monte Carlo (MC) method to simulate the thermally induced magnetization reversal for an isolated single domain particle system. The MC method involves the determination of density of states, and the use of…

Deep architecture such as hierarchical semi-Markov models is an important class of models for nested sequential data. Current exact inference schemes either cost cubic time in sequence length, or exponential time in model depth. These costs…

Cromwell's rule (also known as the zero priors paradox) refers to the constraint of classical probability theory that if one assigns a prior probability of 0 or 1 to a hypothesis, then the posterior has to be 0 or 1 as well (this is a…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the engine of modern Bayesian statistics, being used to approximate the posterior and derived quantities of interest. Despite this, the issue of how the output from a Markov chain is post-processed and…

Mixture models have received considerable attention recently and Newton [Sankhy\={a} Ser. A 64 (2002) 306--322] proposed a fast recursive algorithm for estimating a mixing distribution. We prove almost sure consistency of this recursive…

There exists no consensus on the meaning of the term "randomization test". Contradicting uses of the term are leading to confusion, misunderstandings and indeed invalid data analyses. As we point out, a main source of the confusion is that…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, constitute a class of algorithms used to approximate expectations with respect to a sequence of probability distributions as well as the normalising constants of those…

Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…

Maxwell's equations describe the relation of charge and electric force almost perfectly even though electrons and permanent charge were not in his equations, as he wrote them. For Maxwell, all charge depended on electric field. Charge was…

We explore past and recent developments in rare-event probability estimation with a particular focus on a novel Monte Carlo technique Empirical Likelihood Maximization (ELM). This is a versatile method that involves sampling from a sequence…

Existing definitions of the relativizations of \NCOne, \L\ and \NL\ do not preserve the inclusions $\NCOne \subseteq \L$, $\NL\subseteq \ACOne$. We start by giving the first definitions that preserve them. Here for \L\ and \NL\ we define…