Related papers: A New Framework for Inference on Markov Population…

We consider the problem of fitting variational posterior approximations using stochastic optimization methods. The performance of these approximations depends on (1) how well the variational family matches the true posterior…

The L1-regularized Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) has been shown to have strong statistical guarantees in recovering a sparse inverse covariance matrix, or alternatively the underlying graph structure of a Gaussian Markov…

This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary…

Density-dependent Markov chains form an important class of continuous-time Markov chains in population dynamics. On any fixed time window [0, T ], when the scale parameter K > 0 is large such chains are well approximated by the solution of…

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

We consider a fast approximation method for a solution of a certain stochastic non-local pseudodifferential equation. This equation defines a Mat\'ern class random field. The approximation method is based on the spectral compactness of the…

We consider inference problems for a class of continuous state collective hidden Markov models, where the data is recorded in aggregate (collective) form generated by a large population of individuals following the same dynamics. We propose…

We propose a new fiducial Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for fitting parametric Gaussian models. We utilize the Cayley transform to decompose the parametric covariance matrix, which in turn allows us to formulate a general data…

Spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are popular and flexible models for non-Gaussian spatial data. They are useful for spatial interpolations as well as for fitting regression models that account for spatial dependence, and are…

In this paper, we compute finite sample bounds for data-driven approximations of the solution to stochastic reachability problems. Our approach uses a nonparametric technique known as kernel distribution embeddings, and provides…

We consider a generic and explicit tamed Euler--Maruyama scheme for multidimensional time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential equations with multiplicative Brownian noise. The diffusive coefficient is uniformly elliptic, H\"older…

We present doubly stochastic gradient MCMC, a simple and generic method for (approximate) Bayesian inference of deep generative models (DGMs) in a collapsed continuous parameter space. At each MCMC sampling step, the algorithm randomly…

The rigorous linking of exact stochastic models to mean-field approximations is studied. Starting from the differential equation point of view the stochastic model is identified by its Kolmogorov equations, which is a system of linear ODEs…

We present a class of algorithms for state estimation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach is based on a variational Lagrangian formulation that casts Bayesian inference as a sequence of entropic trust-region updates…

We develop a new randomized iterative algorithm---stochastic dual ascent (SDA)---for finding the projection of a given vector onto the solution space of a linear system. The method is dual in nature: with the dual being a non-strongly…

Non-Gaussian likelihoods are essential for modelling complex real-world observations but pose significant computational challenges in learning and inference. Even with Gaussian priors, non-Gaussian likelihoods often lead to analytically…

We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that…

We study the relation between different Markov Decision Process (MDP) frameworks in the machine learning and econometrics literatures, including the standard MDP, the entropy and general regularized MDP, and stochastic MDP, where the latter…

Learning to sample from complex unnormalized distributions is a fundamental challenge in computational physics and machine learning. While score-based and variational methods have achieved success in continuous domains, extending them to…

Probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state-space models is computationally challenging. For many spatiotemporal systems, however, prior knowledge about the dependency structure of state variables is available. We leverage this…