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As tropical cyclones become more intense due to climate change, the rise of Al-based modelling provides a more affordable and accessible approach compared to traditional methods based on mathematical models. This work leverages generative…
Tropical cyclones occur over the Earth's tropical oceans, with characteristic genesis regions and tracks tied to the warm ocean surface that provides energy to sustain these storms. The study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution on Earth…
Tropical cyclone wind-intensity prediction is a challenging task considering drastic changes climate patterns over the last few decades. In order to develop robust prediction models, one needs to consider different characteristics of…
This paper provides an overview of three notable approaches for detecting anomalies in spatio-temporal data. The three review methods are selected from the framework of multivariate statistical process control (SPC), scan statistics, and…
Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…
The coupled nature of the ocean-atmosphere system frequently makes understanding the direction of causality difficult in ocean-atmosphere interactions. This study presents a method to decompose turbulent heat fluxes into a component which…
The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…
The majority of real-world processes are spatiotemporal, and the data generated by them exhibits both spatial and temporal evolution. Weather is one of the most essential processes in this domain, and weather forecasting has become a…
Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…
The oscillations of climatic parameters of North Atlantic Ocean play important role in various events in North America and Europe. Several climatic indices are associated with these oscillations. The long term Atlantic temperature anomalies…
Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
The Argo project deploys thousands of floats throughout the world's oceans. Carried only by the current, these floats take measurements such as temperature and salinity at depths of up to two kilometers. These measurements are critical for…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
This study investigates temporal variability in U.S. climate using harmonic decomposition techniques, specifically Fourier and wavelet transforms. Monthly temperature, precipitation, and drought index data from the National Oceanic and…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate variability in the tropics and exhibits diverse features in spatiotemporal patterns. In this paper, a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model is…
We investigate the large-scale structure and temporal evolution of cyclonic and anticyclonic systems in the North Atlantic using persistent homology applied to daily sea-level pressure anomalies from the ERA5 reanalysis (1950-2022). By…
In this article, we present a mathematical theory of the Walker circulation of the large-scale atmosphere over the tropics. This study leads to a new metastable state oscillation theory for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a typical…
Tropical cyclones cause significant inland hazards, including wind damage and freshwater flooding, that depend strongly on how storm intensity evolves at and after landfall. Existing theoretical predictions for the time-dependent and…