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The growing uncertainty from renewable power and electricity demand brings significant challenges to unit commitment (UC). While various advanced forecasting and optimization methods have been developed to predict better and address this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Rui Xie , Yue Chen , Pierre Pinson

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Jake C. Snell , Thomas L. Griffiths

One of the most ubiquitous problems in optimization is that of finding all the elements of a finite set at which a function $f$ attains its minimum (or maximum). When the codomain of $f$ is equipped with a total order, it is easy to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Patrik Jansson , Nicola Botta , Tim Richter

In practical optimization problems, we typically model uncertainty as a random variable though its true probability distribution is unobservable to the decision maker. Historical data provides some information of this distribution that we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Arjun Ramachandra , Napat Rujeerapaiboon , Melvyn Sim

Algorithmic stability is a central concept in statistics and learning theory that measures how sensitive an algorithm's output is to small changes in the training data. Stability plays a crucial role in understanding generalization,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Abhinav Chakraborty , Yuetian Luo , Rina Foygel Barber

As the complexity of control systems increases, the need for systematic methods to guarantee their efficacy grows as well. However, direct testing of these systems is oftentimes costly, difficult, or impractical. As a result, the test and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-10 Prithvi Akella , Ugo Rosolia , Aaron D. Ames

Optimization under uncertainty deals with the problem of optimizing stochastic cost functions given some partial information on their inputs. These problems are extremely difficult to solve and yet pervade all areas of technological and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-13 Fabrizio Altarelli , Alfredo Braunstein , Abolfazl Ramezanpour , Riccardo Zecchina

Performance evaluations are critical for quantifying algorithmic advances in reinforcement learning. Recent reproducibility analyses have shown that reported performance results are often inconsistent and difficult to replicate. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Scott M. Jordan , Yash Chandak , Daniel Cohen , Mengxue Zhang , Philip S. Thomas

Portfolio optimization is increasingly argued to require causally identified return predictors to avoid signal inversion and optimization failure. This paper re-examines this claim by studying when predictive signals yield viable efficient…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-24 Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez

We provide novel theoretical insights on structured prediction in the context of efficient convex surrogate loss minimization with consistency guarantees. For any task loss, we construct a convex surrogate that can be optimized via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-30 Anton Osokin , Francis Bach , Simon Lacoste-Julien

One of the primary goals of the mathematical analysis of algorithms is to provide guidance about which algorithm is the "best" for solving a given computational problem. Worst-case analysis summarizes the performance profile of an algorithm…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Tim Roughgarden

We propose a computational framework to quantify (measure) and to optimize the reliability of complex systems. The approach uses a graph representation of the system that is subject to random failures of its components (nodes and edges).…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-25 Joshua L. Pulsipher , Victor M. Zavala

Loss minimization is a dominant paradigm in machine learning, where a predictor is trained to minimize some loss function that depends on an uncertain event (e.g., "will it rain tomorrow?''). Different loss functions imply different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-14 Parikshit Gopalan , Adam Tauman Kalai , Omer Reingold , Vatsal Sharan , Udi Wieder

In the last several years, the intimate connection between convex optimization and learning problems, in both statistical and sequential frameworks, has shifted the focus of algorithmic machine learning to examine this interplay. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-07-23 Mehrdad Mahdavi

We introduce a new protocol for prediction with expert advice in which each expert evaluates the learner's and his own performance using a loss function that may change over time and may be different from the loss functions used by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-03-23 Alexey Chernov , Vladimir Vovk

A burgeoning paradigm in algorithm design is the field of algorithms with predictions, in which algorithms can take advantage of a possibly-imperfect prediction of some aspect of the problem. While much work has focused on using predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Mikhail Khodak , Maria-Florina Balcan , Ameet Talwalkar , Sergei Vassilvitskii

We study the value of stochastic predictions in online optimal control with random disturbances. Prior work provides performance guarantees based on prediction error but ignores the stochastic dependence between predictions and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-06 Yiheng Lin , Christopher Yeh , Zaiwei Chen , Adam Wierman

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Algorithms with predictions} has emerged as a powerful framework to combine the robustness of traditional online algorithms with the data-driven performance benefits of machine-learned (ML) predictions. However, most existing approaches in…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Sizhe Li , Nicolas Christianson , Tongxin Li

The predictive quality of machine learning models is typically measured in terms of their (approximate) expected prediction accuracy or the so-called Area Under the Curve (AUC). Minimizing the reciprocals of these measures are the goals of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Hiva Ghanbari , Minhan Li , Katya Scheinberg