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Bayesian sample size calculations in clinical trials usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power often lack closed-form or approximate numerical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Riko Kelter

Adapting the final sample size of a trial to the evidence accruing during the trial is a natural way to address planning uncertainty. Designs with adaptive sample size need to account for their optional stopping to guarantee strict type-I…

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

In this paper, a Bayesian approach is developed for simultaneously comparing multiple experimental treatments with a common control treatment in an exploratory clinical trial. The sample size is set to ensure that, at the end of the study,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-14 John Whitehead , Faye Cleary , Amanda Turner

The determination of the sample size required by a crossover trial typically depends on the specification of one or more variance components. Uncertainty about the value of these parameters at the design stage means that there is often a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Michael Grayling , Adrian Mander , James Wason

Bayesian design of experiments and sample size calculations usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power therefore often lack closed-form or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Riko Kelter , Samuel Pawel

Sample size derivation is a crucial element of the planning phase of any confirmatory trial. A sample size is typically derived based on constraints on the maximal acceptable type I error rate and a minimal desired power. Here, power…

We consider Bayesian sample size determination using a criterion that utilizes the first two moments of the expected posterior variance. We study the resulting sample size in dependence on the chosen prior and explore the success rate for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-28 Jörg Martin , Clemens Elster

The reproducibility crisis has led to an increasing number of replication studies being conducted. Sample sizes for replication studies are often calculated using conditional power based on the effect estimate from the original study.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-19 Charlotte Micheloud , Leonhard Held

For randomized controlled trials to be conclusive, it is important to set the target sample size accurately at the design stage. Comparing two normal populations, the sample size calculation requires specification of the variance other than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Hirotada Maeda , Satoshi Hattori , Tim Friede

It is crucial to design Phase II cancer clinical trials that balance the efficiency of treatment selection with clinical practicality. Sargent and Goldberg proposed a frequentist design that allow decision-making even when the primary…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-15 Moka Komaki , Satoru Shinoda , Haiyan Zheng , Kouji Yamamoto

Despite their importance in supporting experimental conclusions, standard statistical tests are often inadequate for research areas, like the life sciences, where the typical sample size is small and the test assumptions difficult to…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-04-15 Pietro Berkes , Jozsef Fiser

We consider the design of a two-arm superiority cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a continuous outcome. We detail Bayesian inference for the analysis of the trial using a linear mixed-effects model. The treatment is compared to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-29 Kevin J Wilson

In conventional randomized controlled trials, adjustment for baseline values of covariates known to be at least moderately associated with the outcome increases the power of the trial. Recent work has shown particular benefit for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 James Willard , Shirin Golchi , Erica EM Moodie

This paper explores an approach to Bayesian sample size determination in clinical trials. The approach falls into the category of what is often called "proper Bayesian", in that it does not mix frequentist concepts with Bayesian ones. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-04-23 Robb J. Muirhead , Adina I. Soaita

Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Alejandra Estefanía Patiño Hoyos , Johnatan Cardona Jiménez

We consider conditional estimation in two-stage sample size adjustable designs and the following bias. More specifically, we consider a design which permits raising the sample size when interim results look rather promising, and, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-27 Per Broberg , Frank Miller

A small n, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (snSMART) is a small sample, two-stage design where participants receive up to two treatments sequentially, but the second treatment depends on response to the first treatment.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-14 Yan-Cheng Chao , Thomas M. Braun , Roy N. Tamura , Kelley M. Kidwell

The development of a new diagnostic test ideally follows a sequence of stages which, amongst other aims, evaluate technical performance. This includes an analytical validity study, a diagnostic accuracy study and an interventional clinical…

Utilizing Bayesian methods in clinical trials has become increasingly popular, as they can incorporate historical data and expert opinions into the design and allow for smaller sample sizes to reduce costs while providing reliable and…

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