Related papers: Shape-based Feature Engineering for Solar Flare Pr…
Machine learning models for forecasting solar flares have been trained and evaluated using a variety of data sources, including Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) operational and science-quality data. Typically, data from these sources…
The formation and evolution of active regions is an inherently complex phenomenon. Magnetic fields generated at the base of the convection zone follow a chaotic evolution before reaching the solar surface. In this article, we use a 2-D…
We study the prediction of solar flare size and time-to-flare using 38 features describing magnetic complexity of the photospheric magnetic field. This work uses support vector regression to formulate a mapping from the 38-dimensional…
The sudden release of magnetic energy on the Sun drives powerful solar flares and coronal mass ejections. The key issue is the difficulty in predicting the occurrence time and location of strong solar eruptions, i.e., those leading to the…
Active regions (AR) appearing on the surface of the Sun are classified into $\alpha$, $\beta$, $\gamma$, and $\delta$ by the rules of the Mount Wilson Observatory, California on the basis of their topological complexity. Amongst these, the…
A demonstrated failure mode for operational solar flare forecasting is the inability to forecast flares that occur near, or just beyond, the solar limb. To address this shortcoming, we develop a "4pi" full-heliosphere event forecasting…
The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…
Traditional solar flare forecasting approaches have mostly relied on physics-based or data-driven models using solar magnetograms, treating flare predictions as a point-in-time classification problem. This approach has limitations,…
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the most energetic events in the solar system, impacting the near-Earth environment. Flare productivity is empirically known to be correlated with the size and complexity of active…
Indications are presented for a significant connection between the relative motion of the planets and the appearance of energetic solar flares. Based on the records of the last four decades, the analysis highlights remarkable features and a…
Solar flares represent one of the most intense forms of solar activity. Understanding the evolution of physical parameters in the solar atmosphere during flares is key to studying flare mechanisms and improving prediction capabilities.…
A solar active region can significantly disrupt the Sun Earth space environment, often leading to severe space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. As a consequence, the automatic classification of active region…
Over the past few decades, many applications of physics-based simulations and data-driven techniques (including machine learning and deep learning) have emerged to analyze and predict solar flares. These approaches are pivotal in…
We establish the largest eruptive/confined flare database to date and analyze 322 flares of \emph{GOES} class M1.0 and larger that occurred during 2010$-$2019, i.e., almost spanning the entire solar cycle 24. We find that the total unsigned…
Predicting the severity of the solar eruptive phenomena like flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) remains a great challenge despite concerted efforts for several decades. The advent of high quality vector magnetograms obtained from…
Flare productivity varies among solar active regions (ARs). This study analyzed 20 ARs of contrasting sunspot areas and flare productivities to understand the super flare productivity of certain ARs. We used the flare index (FI) as an…
AI-FLARES (Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data) is a research project funded by the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and by the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica within the framework of the ``Attivit\`a di Studio per la…
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…
The triggering mechanism(s) and critical condition(s) of solar flares are still not completely clarified, although various studies have attempted to elucidate them. We have also proposed a theoretical flare-trigger model based on MHD…
Solar irradiance is fundamental data crucial for analyses related to weather and climate. High-precision estimation models are necessary to create areal data for solar irradiance. In this study, we developed a novel estimation model by…