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We discuss a Bayesian methodology for the solution of the inverse problem underlying the determination of parton distribution functions (PDFs). In our approach, Gaussian Processes (GPs) are used to model the PDF prior, while Bayes theorem…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-07-03 Alessandro Candido , Luigi Del Debbio , Tommaso Giani , Giacomo Petrillo

In this paper we introduce a novel Bayesian data augmentation approach for estimating the parameters of the generalised logistic regression model. We propose a P\'olya-Gamma sampler algorithm that allows us to sample from the exact…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Luciana Dalla Valle , Fabrizio Leisen , Luca Rossini , Weixuan Zhu

Bayesian computational strategies for inference can be inefficient in approximating the posterior distribution in models that exhibit some form of periodicity. This is because the probability mass of the marginal posterior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Javier Lopez-Santiago , Luca Martino , Joaquin Miguez , Gonzalo Vazquez-Vilar

In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-24 David T. Frazier , Jeremias Knoblauch , Jack Jewson , Christopher Drovandi

We show that when the proportions of a countable set of species are organized as an exchangeable partition of the unit interval and we take a sample on it, then the Bayesian posterior entropy converges a.s. and in L^1 to the entropy of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-20 Servet Martinez

The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-13 Spencer Woody , Novin Ghaffari , Lauren Hund

Bayesian inference is a widely used and powerful analytical technique in fields such as astronomy and particle physics but has historically been underutilized in some other disciplines including semiconductor devices. In this work, we…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-11-28 Rachel C. Kurchin , Giuseppe Romano , Tonio Buonassisi

We consider a Bayesian hierarchical version of the normal theory general linear model which is practically relevant in the sense that it is general enough to have many applications and it is not straightforward to sample directly from the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-01-22 Alicia A. Johnson , Galin L. Jones

We study the posterior distribution of the Bayesian multiple change-point regression problem when the number and the locations of the change-points are unknown. While it is relatively easy to apply the general theory to obtain the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-21 Heng Lian

We study objective Bayesian inference for linear regression models with residual errors distributed according to the class of two-piece scale mixtures of normal distributions. These models allow for capturing departures from the usual…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-09 F. J. Rubio , K. Yu

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Nils Lid Hjort

A nonparametric Bayes approach is proposed for the problem of estimating a sparse sequence based on Gaussian random variables. We adopt the popular two-group prior with one component being a point mass at zero, and the other component being…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-31 Yunbo Ouyang , Feng Liang

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are widely used to cluster observations. However, one major drawback of the approach is that the estimated partition often presents unbalanced clusters' frequencies with only a few dominating clusters…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Beatrice Franzolini , Giovanni Rebaudo

We deal with the analysis of on-off measurements designed for the confirmation of a weak source of events whose presence is hypothesized, based on former observations. The problem of a small number of source events that are masked by an…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-08-23 Dalibor Nosek , Jana Nosková

In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-20 Zai-Ying Zhou

We consider a Bayesian problem of estimating of probability of success in a series of conditionally independent trials with binary outcomes. We study the asymptotic behaviour of differential entropy for posterior probability density…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-07-30 Mark Kelbert , Pavel Mozgunov

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Ročková

A quality-Bayesian approach, combining the direct sampling method and the Bayesian inversion, is proposed to reconstruct the locations and intensities of the unknown acoustic sources using partial data. First, we extend the direct sampling…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-10 Zhaoxing Li , Yanfang Liu , Jiguang Sun , Liwei Xu

We present an extension of local sensitivity analysis, also referred to as the perturbation approach for uncertainty quantification, to Bayesian inverse problems. More precisely, we show how moments of random variables with respect to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Jürgen Dölz , David Ebert

We consider an array of random variables, taking values in a complete and separable metric space, that exhibits a kind of symmetry which we call row exchangeability. Given such an array, a natural model for Bayesian nonparametric inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-10 Evan Donald , Jason Swanson