Related papers: A Theory of Updating Ambiguous Information

Conventional recursive filtering approaches, designed for quantifying the state of an evolving uncertain dynamical system with intermittent observations, use a sequence of (i) an uncertainty propagation step followed by (ii) a step where…

We develop a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic game for competitive inventory and pricing under incomplete information. Two firms repeatedly choose order quantities and prices while facing two layers of uncertainty: unknown market demand and…

Two-phase outcome dependent sampling (ODS) is widely used in many fields, especially when certain covariates are expensive and/or difficult to measure. For two-phase ODS, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) method is very attractive…

We introduce a new observational setting for Positive Unlabeled (PU) data where the observations at prediction time are also labeled. This occurs commonly in practice -- we argue that the additional information is important for prediction,…

WA qualitative probabilistic network models the probabilistic relationships between its variables by means of signs. Non-monotonic influences have associated an ambiguous sign. These ambiguous signs typically lead to uninformative results…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences,…

The field of generating recommendations within the framework of causal inference has seen a recent surge, with recommendations being likened to treatments. This approach enhances insights into the influence of recommendations on user…

In this paper, we consider several types of information and methods of combination associated with incomplete probabilistic systems. We discriminate between 'a priori' and evidential information. The former one is a description of the whole…

LLMs are widely used in knowledge-intensive tasks where the same fact may be revised multiple times within context. Unlike prior work focusing on one-shot updates or single conflicts, multi-update scenarios contain multiple historically…

We study conditioning on null events, or surprises, and behaviorally characterize the Ordered Surprises (OS) representation of beliefs. For feasible events, our Decision Maker (DM) is Bayesian. For null events, our DM considers a hierarchy…

Arbitrary public announcement logic (APAL) reasons about how the knowledge of a set of agents changes after true public announcements and after arbitrary announcements of true epistemic formulas. We consider a variant of arbitrary public…

This paper focuses on probability updates in multiply-connected belief networks. Pearl has designed the method of conditioning, which enables us to apply his algorithm for belief updates in singly-connected networks to multiply-connected…

We propose a novel data augmentation for labeled sentences called contextual augmentation. We assume an invariance that sentences are natural even if the words in the sentences are replaced with other words with paradigmatic relations. We…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…

Knowledge augmentation has significantly enhanced the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks. However, existing methods typically operate on the simplistic premise that model performance equates with…

Selective rationalization improves neural network interpretability by identifying a small subset of input features -- the rationale -- that best explains or supports the prediction. A typical rationalization criterion, i.e. maximum mutual…

This paper characterizes optimal classification when individuals adjust their behavior in response to the classification rule. We model the interaction between a designer and a population as a Stackelberg game: the designer selects a…

Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Large language models (LLMs) frequently generate confident yet inaccurate responses, introducing significant risks for deployment in safety-critical domains. We present a novel, test-time approach to detecting model hallucination through…