Related papers: Timely Tracking of Infection Status of Individuals…
The primary analysis in two-arm clinical trials usually involves inference on a scalar treatment effect parameter; e.g., depending on the outcome, the difference of treatment-specific means, risk difference, risk ratio, or odds ratio. Most…
Effective visualizations were evaluated to reveal relevant health patterns from multi-sensor real-time wearable devices that recorded vital signs from patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Furthermore, specific challenges associated…
We introduce a methodology to guarantee safety against the spread of infectious diseases by viewing epidemiological models as control systems and by considering human interventions (such as quarantining or social distancing) as control…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
This work presents a simple and realistic approach to handle the available data of COVID-19 patients in India and to forecast the scenario. The model proposed is based on the available facts like the onset of lockdown (as announced by the…
We propose a partial identification method for estimating disease prevalence from serology studies. Our data are results from antibody tests in some population sample, where the test parameters, such as the true/false positive rates, are…
Motivated with various responses of world governments to COVID-19, here we develop a toy model of the dependence epidemics spreading on the availability of tests for disease. Our model, that we call SUDR+K, is based on usual SIR model, but…
The burden of diseases is rising worldwide, with unequal treatment efficacy for patient populations that are underrepresented in clinical trials. Healthcare, however, is driven by the average population effect of medical treatments and,…
The symptoms of many infectious diseases influence their host to withdraw from social activity limiting their own potential to spread. Successful transmission therefore requires the onset of infectiousness to coincide with a time when its…
In a typical Event-Based Surveillance setting, a stream of web documents is continuously monitored for disease reporting. A structured representation of the disease reporting events is extracted from the raw text, and the events are then…
Emerging infectious diseases are existential threats to human health and global stability. The recent outbreaks of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 have rapidly formed a global pandemic, causing hundreds of thousands of infections and huge…
We present a mobile app solution to help the containment of an epidemic outbreak by keeping track of possible infections in the incubation period. We consider the particular case of an infection which primarily spreads among people through…
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European…
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…
Public health experts need scalable approaches to monitor large volumes of health data (e.g., cases, hospitalizations, deaths) for outbreaks or data quality issues. Traditional alert-based monitoring systems struggle with modern public…
We study the early stages of viral infection, and the distribution of times to obtain a persistent infection. The virus population proliferates by entering and reproducing inside a target cell until a sufficient number of new virus…
We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…
Classical epidemiological models assume homogeneous populations. There have been important extensions to model heterogeneous populations, when the identity of the sub-populations is known, such as age group or geographical location. Here,…
We consider a novel method to increase the reliability of COVID-19 virus or antibody tests by using specially designed pooled testings. Instead of testing nasal swab or blood samples from individual persons, we propose to test mixtures of…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging every part of society. From a scientific point of view the first major task is to predict the dynamics of the pandemic, allowing governments to allocate proper resources and measures to fight it,…