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Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Xuhui Fan , Edwin V. Bonilla , Terence J. O'Kane , Scott A. Sisson

There is a rich literature for modeling binary and polychotomous responses. However, existing methods are inadequate for handling combinatorial responses, where each response is an integer array under additional constraints. Such data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Yu Zheng , Malay Ghosh , Leo Duan

Many scientific and industrial processes produce data that is best analysed as vectors of relative values, often called compositions or proportions. The Dirichlet distribution is a natural distribution to use for composition or proportion…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-15 Sean van der Merwe

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) have been proposed as a compromise between white-box and black-box models, aiming to achieve interpretability without sacrificing accuracy. The standard training procedure for CBMs is to predefine a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Jean Feng , Avni Kothari , Luke Zier , Chandan Singh , Yan Shuo Tan

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are a powerful and established tool for studying genotype-phenotype relationships. A limiting assumption of LMMs is that the residuals are Gaussian distributed, a requirement that rarely holds in practice.…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2014-08-10 Nicolo Fusi , Christoph Lippert , Neil D. Lawrence , Oliver Stegle

Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-12 Barry C. Arnold , Indranil Ghosh

Pairwise comparison data are widely used to infer latent rankings in areas such as sports, social choice, and machine learning. The Bradley-Terry model provides a foundational probabilistic framework but inherently assumes transitive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Hisaya Okahara , Tomoyuki Nakagawa , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-30 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan , Skye A. Wills

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

In the mixture modeling frame, this paper presents the polynomial Gaussian cluster-weighted model (CWM). It extends the linear Gaussian CWM, for bivariate data, in a twofold way. Firstly, it allows for possible nonlinear dependencies in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-05 Antonio Punzo

We present a coherent Bayesian framework for selection of the most likely model from the five genetic models (genotypic, additive, dominant, co-dominant, and recessive) commonly used in genetic association studies. The approach uses a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-22 Harold Bae , Thomas Perls , Martin Steinberg , Paola Sebastiani

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Paul Beaumont , Michael Huth

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

This paper proposes the asymmetric linear double autoregression, which jointly models the conditional mean and conditional heteroscedasticity characterized by asymmetric effects. A sufficient condition is established for the existence of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-22 Songhua Tan , Qianqian Zhu

This study examines the application of Bayesian approach in the context of clinical trials, emphasizing their increasing importance in contemporary biomedical research. While conventional frequentist approach provides a foundational basis…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Paramahansa Pramanik , Arnab Kumar Maity , Anjan Mandal , Haley Kate Robinson

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) offer a practical alternative for addressing logistical challenges and ensuring feasibility in community health, education, and prevention studies, even though randomized controlled trials are considered the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Jooyeon Lee , M. S. , Evan Kwiatkowski , Ph. D

Neural processes are a family of probabilistic models that inherit the flexibility of neural networks to parameterize stochastic processes. Despite providing well-calibrated predictions, especially in regression problems, and quick…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Peiman Mohseni , Nick Duffield , Bani Mallick , Arman Hasanzadeh

Causal learning has long concerned itself with the accurate recovery of underlying causal mechanisms. Such causal modelling enables better explanations of out-of-distribution data. Prior works on causal learning assume that the high-level…

Conditional generative models are capable of using contextual information as input to create new imaginative outputs. Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs) are one class of conditional generative models that have proven to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Alex H. Lang , Anton D. Loukianov , Charles K. Fisher