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Uncertainty quantification is an important prerequisite for the deployment of deep learning models in safety-critical areas. Yet, this hinges on the uncertainty estimates being useful to the extent the prediction intervals are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Dharmesh Tailor , Alvaro H. C. Correia , Eric Nalisnick , Christos Louizos

An assumption often made in supervised learning is that the training and testing sets have the same label distribution. However, in real-life scenarios, this assumption rarely holds. For example, medical diagnosis result distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Yunrui Zhang , Gustavo Batista , Salil S. Kanhere

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Confidence calibration for classification models is vital in safety-critical decision-making scenarios and has received extensive attention. General confidence calibration methods assume training and test data are independent and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Jinzong Dong , Zhaohui Jiang , Bo Yang

Combining machine learning and constrained optimization, Predict+Optimize tackles optimization problems containing parameters that are unknown at the time of solving. Prior works focus on cases with unknowns only in the objectives. A new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Xinyi Hu , Jasper C. H. Lee , Jimmy H. M. Lee

The calibration of predictive distributions has been widely studied in deep learning, but the same cannot be said about the more specific epistemic uncertainty as produced by Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Deep Networks, or Evidential Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Mohammed Fellaji , Frédéric Pennerath , Brieuc Conan-Guez , Miguel Couceiro

Incorporating domain knowledge into the modeling process is an effective way to improve learning accuracy. However, as it is provided by humans, domain knowledge can only be specified with some degree of uncertainty. We propose to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Yi Mao , Guy Lebanon

Quantification of Uncertainty in predictions is a challenging problem. In the classification settings, although deep learning based models generalize well, class probabilities often lack reliability. Calibration errors are used to quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Aditya Challa , Snehanshu Saha , Soma Dhavala

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in many computer vision tasks. However, high computational and storage demands hinder their deployment into resource-constrained environments, such as embedded…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Pallavi Mitra , Gesina Schwalbe , Nadja Klein

Although deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in audio classification tasks, their uncertainty calibration are still under-explored. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction…

Sound · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Tong Ye , Shijing Si , Jianzong Wang , Ning Cheng , Jing Xiao

Distribution shift is an important concern in deep image classification, produced either by corruption of the source images, or a complete change, with the solution involving domain adaptation. While the primary goal is to improve accuracy…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-19 Tiago Salvador , Vikram Voleti , Alexander Iannantuono , Adam Oberman

A set of novel approaches for estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks with a single forward pass has recently emerged as a valid alternative to Bayesian Neural Networks. On the premise of informative representations, these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Janis Postels , Mattia Segu , Tao Sun , Luca Sieber , Luc Van Gool , Fisher Yu , Federico Tombari

In many classification problems it is desirable to output well-calibrated probabilities on the different classes. We propose a robust, non-parametric method of calibrating probabilities called SplineCalib that utilizes smoothing splines to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-21 Brian Lucena

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Jeremy Nixon , Mike Dusenberry , Ghassen Jerfel , Timothy Nguyen , Jeremiah Liu , Linchuan Zhang , Dustin Tran

Prediction under uncertainty is a critical requirement for the deep neural network to succeed responsibly. This paper focuses on selective prediction, which allows DNNs to make informed decisions about when to predict or abstain based on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Ishan Mishra , Jiajie Li , Deepak Mishra , Jinjun Xiong

Uncertainty estimation is critical for numerous applications of deep neural networks and draws growing attention from researchers. Here, we demonstrate an uncertainty quantification approach for deep neural networks used in inverse problems…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Luzhe Huang , Jianing Li , Xiaofu Ding , Yijie Zhang , Hanlong Chen , Aydogan Ozcan

Post-hoc multi-class calibration is a common approach for providing high-quality confidence estimates of deep neural network predictions. Recent work has shown that widely used scaling methods underestimate their calibration error, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Kanil Patel , William Beluch , Bin Yang , Michael Pfeiffer , Dan Zhang

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes environments, ensuring both probabilistic reliability and prediction stability has become critical. This paper examines the interplay between classification calibration and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Mustafa Cavus

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Ailin Deng , Pang Wei Koh , Jiaying Wu , Shen Li , Jianqing Xu , Bryan Hooi

Deep neural networks have been shown to be highly miscalibrated. often they tend to be overconfident in their predictions. It poses a significant challenge for safety-critical systems to utilise deep neural networks (DNNs), reliably. Many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Aditya Singh , Alessandro Bay , Biswa Sengupta , Andrea Mirabile