Related papers: Future Climate Change Projections over the Indian …
This paper is a submission for the Weather4Cast~2025 complementary Pollution Task and presents an efficient framework for 6-hour lead-time nowcasting of PM$_1$, PM$_{2.5}$, and PM$_{10}$ across the Indian subcontinent and surrounding…
Probabilistic projections of baseline (with no additional mitigation policies) future carbon emissions are important for sound climate risk assessments. Deep uncertainty surrounds many drivers of projected emissions. Here we use a simple…
The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…
Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio-economic value. It represents a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained…
In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong). First,…
We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR…
The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a critical climate phenomenon, fundamentally impacting the agriculture, economy, and water security of over a billion people. Traditional long-range forecasting, whether statistical or dynamical, has…
The rainfall associated with Topical Cyclone(TC) contributes a major amount to the annual rainfall in India. Due to the limited research on the quantitative precipitation associated with Tropical Cyclones (TC), the prediction of the amount…
Climate science studies the structure and dynamics of Earth's climate system and seeks to understand how climate changes over time, where the data is usually stored in the format of time series, recording the climate features, geolocation,…
Global climate models (GCMs), typically run at ~100-km resolution, capture large-scale environmental conditions but cannot resolve convection and cloud processes at kilometer scales. Convection-permitting models offer higher-resolution…
The present work is aimed to examine the potential of advanced machine learning strategies to predict the monthly rainfall (precipitation) for the Indus Basin, using climatological variables such as air temperature, geo-potential height,…
Two future scenarios that are not explicitly in the range of scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) utilised by the IPCC. These two scenarios are the emissions trend under peak fossil fuel (for example, Mohr et al.,…
This research presents a three-step causal inference framework that integrates correlation analysis, machine learning-based causality discovery, and LLM-driven interpretations to identify socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions…
Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, we develop two such methods, Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo…
Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…
Climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, significant differences in climate model projections for given scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, continue to hinder detailed assessment. Here we…
Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Residential heating and cooling currently account for approximately 7% of electricity consumption of India. A warming climate will increase residential cooling requirements, while heating needs will decrease which is an alarming consequence…