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Related papers: Spacecraft Collision Risk Assessment with Probabil…

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Space debris is a major problem in space exploration. International bodies continuously monitor a large database of orbiting objects and emit warnings in the form of conjunction data messages. An important question for satellite operators…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-28 Francisco Caldas , Cláudia Soares , Cláudia Nunes , Marta Guimarães

Space debris is a major problem in space exploration. International bodies continuously monitor a large database of orbiting objects and emit warnings in the form of conjunction data messages. An important question for satellite operators…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-22 Francisco Caldas , Claudia Soares , Cláudia Nunes , Marta Guimarães , Mariana Filipe , Rodrigo Ventura

Satellite conjunctions involving "near misses" of space objects are becoming increasingly likely. One approach to risk analysis for them involves the computation of the collision probability, but this has been regarded as having some…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-11 Soumaya Elkantassi , Anthony Davison

The space environment around the Earth is populated by more than 130 million objects of 1 mm in size and larger, and future predictions shows that this amount is destined to increase, even if mitigation measures are implemented at a far…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-29 Mirko Trisolini , Hugh G. Lewis , Camilla Colombo

Since the late 1950s, when the first artificial satellite was launched, the number of Resident Space Objects has steadily increased. It is estimated that around one million objects larger than one cm are currently orbiting the Earth, with…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-07-30 Francisco Caldas , Cláudia Soares

The proliferation of space debris in LEO has become a major concern for the space industry. With the growing interest in space exploration, the prediction of potential collisions between objects in orbit has become a crucial issue. It is…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-11 Ricardo Ferreira , Cláudia Soares , Marta Guimarães

After decades of space travel, low Earth orbit is a junkyard of discarded rocket bodies, dead satellites, and millions of pieces of debris from collisions and explosions. Objects in high enough altitudes do not re-enter and burn up in the…

Spacecraft collision avoidance procedures have become an essential part of satellite operations. Complex and constantly updated estimates of the collision risk between orbiting objects inform the various operators who can then plan risk…

Numerical simulations are at the center of predicting the space debris environment of the upcoming decades. In light of debris generating events, such as continued anti-satellite weapon tests and planned mega-constellations, accurate…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-03-15 Pablo Gómez , Fabio Gratl , Oliver Bösing , Dario Izzo

Space is becoming more crowded in Low Earth Orbit due to increased space activity. Such a dense space environment increases the risk of collisions between space objects endangering the whole space population. Therefore, the need to consider…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-20 João Simões Catulo , Cláudia Soares , Marta Guimarães

A method is developed to calculate collision probability in this paper. Based on the encounter geometric features of space objects, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from that in the cross section for most encounter…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-18 Xiaoli Xu , Yongqing Xiong

This Engineering Note addresses the challenge of estimating the probability of collision for tethered spacecraft during close encounters with other space objects. Standard probability of collision methods, based on spherical hard-body…

Neglecting small fragments in space debris evolutionary models can lead to a significant underestimation of the collision risk for operational satellites. However, when scaling down to the millimeter range, the debris population grows to…

Space Physics · Physics 2023-09-08 Lorenzo Giudici , Juan Luis Gonzalo , Camilla Colombo

This paper presents an analytical model for collision probability assessments between de-orbiting or injecting space objects and satellite constellations. Considering the first to be subjected to a continuous tangential acceleration, its…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-05-15 Eduardo Maria Polli , Juan Luis Gonzalo , Camilla Colombo

Current approaches for collision avoidance and space traffic management face many challenges, mainly due to the continuous increase in the number of objects in orbit and the lack of scalable and automated solutions. To avoid catastrophic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-17 Marta Guimarães , Cláudia Soares , Chiara Manfletti

Space debris is a major threat to the satellite infrastructure. A collision with even small particle, e.g. 1 cm of size, can cause a catastrophic event when the parent body, spacecraft or upper stage, will break up into hundreds of…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-24 Jiri Silha

Satellite conjunctions involving near misses of space objects are increasingly common, especially with the growth of satellite constellations and space debris. Accurate risk analysis for these events is essential to prevent collisions and…

The amount of debris in orbit has increased significantly over the years. With the recent growth of interest in space exploration, conjunction assessment has become a central issue. One important metric to evaluate conjunction risk is the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-02-04 Ricardo N. Ferreira , Marta Guimarães , Cláudia Soares

Conjunction analysis and maneuver planning for spacecraft collision avoidance remains a manual and time-consuming process, typically involving repeated forward simulations of hand-designed maneuvers. With the growing density of satellites…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Fausto Vega , Jon Arrizabalaga , Ryan Watson , Zachary Manchester

The number of space objects will grow several times in a few years due to the planned launches of constellations of thousands microsatellites. It leads to a significant increase in the threat of satellite collisions. Spacecraft must…

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