Related papers: Epidemic spreading in an expanded parameter space:…
The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number Rt(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested),…
The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 and later…
The existence of an exponential growth phase during early stages of a pandemic is often taken for granted. However, for the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic, the early exponential phase lasted only for about six days, while the quadratic…
To evaluate the effectiveness of the containment on the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019, we carry on an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in a selected number of different Countries, by considering…
We develop a simple 3-dimensional iterative map model to forecast the global spread of the coronavirus disease. Our model contains at most two fitting parameters, which we determine from the data supplied by the world health organisation…
COVID-19 is an emerging respiratory infectious disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. It was first reported on in early December 2019 in Wuhan, China and within three month spread as a pandemic around the whole globe. Here, we study…
The Covid-19 epidemic of the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS - CoV-2) has been spreading around the world. While different containment policies using non-pharmaceutical interventions have been applied, their…
This work systematically conducts a data analysis based on the numbers of both cumulative and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in a time span through April 2020 to June 2022 for over 200 countries around the world. Such research…
Epidemics unfold by means of a spreading process from each infected individual to a random number of secondary cases. It has been claimed that the so-called superspreading events in COVID-19 are governed by a power-law tailed distribution…
By the end of July 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected more than seventeen million people and had spread to almost all countries worldwide. In response, many countries all over the world have used different methods to reduce the…
We comparatively analyzed the spatiotemporal fluctuations of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and SARS outbreaks to understand their epidemiological characteristics. Methodologically, we introduced TPL (Taylor power law) to…
We report a statistical analysis of some highly infected countries by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The cumulative infected data were fitted with various growth models (e.g. Logistic equation, Weibull equation and Hill equation) and…
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been identified to cause acute respiratory disease in humans. An outbreak of this disease has been reported in mainland China with the city of Wuhan as the recognized epicenter. The…
During the COVID pandemic, periods of exponential growth of the disease have been mitigated by containment measures that in different occasions have resulted in a power-law growth of the number of cases. The first observation of such…
Macroscopic growth laws, solutions of mean field equations, describe in an effective way an underlying complex dynamics. They are applied to study the spreading of infections, as in the case of CoviD-19, where the counting of the cumulated…
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, many data analyses have been done. Some of them are based on the classical epidemiological approach that assumes an exponential growth, but a few studies report that a power-law scaling may provide a better…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has quickly grown from a regional outbreak in Wuhan, China to a global pandemic. Early estimates of the epidemic growth and incubation period of COVID-19 may have been biased due to sample selection.…
The scope of this work is to serve as a guiding tool against subjective estimations on real pandemic situations (mainly due to the inability to acquire objective real data over whole populations). The previously introduced model of closed…
A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…
COVID-19 is a global health crisis that has had unprecedented, widespread impact on households across the United States and has been declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. According to Centers…