Related papers: Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities
The increasing challenges posed by climate change necessitate a comprehensive examination of the resilience of waterborne transport systems. This paper explores the nexus of climate resilience, and waterborne transport, addressing the…
The extinction of species is a core process that affects the diversity of life on Earth. One way of investigating the causes and consequences of extinctions is to build conceptual ecological models, and to use the dynamical outcomes of such…
Synthesizing fully developed three-dimensional turbulent velocity fields remains a long-standing problem in fluid mechanics and an open challenge for generative modeling. The difficulty arises from the coexistence of extreme dimensionality,…
This chapter is dedicated to the slow dynamics of the climate system, at time scales of one~thousand to one million years. We focus specifically on the phenomenon of ice ages that has characterised the slow evolution of climate over the…
Computer models are widely used in decision support for energy systems operation, planning and policy. A system of models is often employed, where model inputs themselves arise from other computer models, with each model being developed by…
A challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately…
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…
Climate change is one of the most significant global challenges, yet misconceptions persist regarding its causes and impact. This report addresses common myths surrounding climate change and presents scientific evidence to clarify its…
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…
Understanding how droughts may change in the future is essential for anticipating and mitigating their adverse impacts. However, robust climate projections require large amounts of high-resolution climate simulations, particularly for…
This expository paper discusses Bayesian decision analysis perspectives on problems of constrained forecasting. Foundational and pedagogic discussion contrasts decision analytic approaches with the traditional, but typically inappropriate,…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…
The representations of atmospheric moist convection in general circulation models have been one of the most challenging tasks due to its complexity in physical processes, and the interaction between processes under different time/spatial…
Out-of-equilibrium systems, inherently complex and challenging to understand, are prevalent across various disciplines, including physics where they arise in contexts such as fluid dynamics. In particular, critical out-of-equilibrium…
Compositional convection is atmospheric mixing driven by density variations caused by compositional gradients. Previous studies have suggested that compositional gradients of atmospheric trace species within planetary atmospheres can impact…
Typical deep learning approaches to modeling high-dimensional data often result in complex models that do not easily reveal a new understanding of the data. Research in the deep learning field is very actively pursuing new methods to…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
Research on environmental risk modeling relies on numerous indicators to quantify the magnitude and frequency of extreme climate events, their ecological, economic, and social impacts, and the coping mechanisms that can reduce or mitigate…
Predictions of biodiversity trajectories under climate change are crucial in order to act effectively in maintaining the diversity of species. In many ecological applications, future predictions are made under various global warming…
The increasing frequency of global climate extremes has significantly impacted the terrestrial carbon cycle. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation pose serious threats to ecosystem carbon…