Related papers: Ensemble Kalman filter based Sequential Monte Carl…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are widely used to draw samples from intractable target distributions. Particle degeneracy can hinder the use of SMC when the target distribution is highly constrained or multimodal. As a motivating…

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

Despite the widespread usage of discrete generation Ensemble Kalman particle filtering methodology to solve nonlinear and high dimensional filtering and inverse problems, little is known about their mathematical foundations. As genetic-type…

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an efficient algorithm for many data assimilation problems. In certain circumstances, however, divergence of the EnKF might be spotted. In previous studies, the authors proposed an…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

A recent line of research has exploited pre-trained generative diffusion models as priors for solving Bayesian inverse problems. We contribute to this research direction by designing a sequential Monte Carlo method for linear-Gaussian…

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) has achieved great successes in data assimilation in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, but its failure in convergence to the right filtering distribution precludes its use for uncertainty quantification. We…

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

The iterative ensemble Kalman filter (IEnKF) is widely used in inverse problems to estimate system parameters from limited observations. However, the IEnKF, when applied to nonlinear systems, can be plagued by poor convergence. Here we…

This paper extends the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for inverse problems to identify trending model coefficients. This is done by repeatedly inflating the ensemble while maintaining the mean of the particles. As a benchmark serves a…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…

We propose a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for sampling from unnormalized target distributions based on a reverse denoising diffusion process. While recent diffusion-based samplers simulate the reverse diffusion using…

In this paper, stochastic optimal control problems in continuous time and space are considered. In recent years, such problems have received renewed attention from the lens of reinforcement learning (RL) which is also one of our motivation.…

Specifying a full Bayesian model that integrates multiple data sources can be challenging. One natural approach is to specify each individual model separately and join them afterwards. This is the approach adopted in Markov melding.…

This paper presents a new approach to automatically discovering accurate models of complex time series data. Working within a Bayesian nonparametric prior over a symbolic space of Gaussian process time series models, we present a novel…

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) is a popular technique for data assimilation, with far ranging applications. However, the vanilla EnKF framework is not well-defined when perturbations are nonlinear. We study two non-linear extensions of…

Bayesian inference for factorial hidden Markov models is challenging due to the exponentially sized latent variable space. Standard Monte Carlo samplers can have difficulties effectively exploring the posterior landscape and are often…