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Probability forecasts for binary outcomes, often referred to as probabilistic classifiers or confidence scores, are ubiquitous in science and society, and methods for evaluating and comparing them are in great demand. We propose and study a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-27 Timo Dimitriadis , Tilmann Gneiting , Alexander I. Jordan , Peter Vogel

The recent advent of powerful generative models has triggered the renewed development of quantitative measures to assess the proximity of two probability distributions. As the scalar Frechet inception distance remains popular, several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Rodrigue Siry , Ryan Webster , Loic Simon , Julien Rabin

Optimal transport (OT) compares probability distributions by computing a meaningful alignment between their samples. CO-optimal transport (COOT) takes this comparison further by inferring an alignment between features as well. While this…

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and its summary measure, the Area Under the Curve (AUC), are well-established tools for evaluating the efficacy of biomarkers in biomedical studies. Compared to the traditional ROC curve,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-20 Ziad Akram Ali Hammouri , Yating Zou , Rahul Ghosal , Juan C. Vidal , Marcos Matabuena

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) evaluates the separation between patients and nonpatients or discrimination. For risk prediction models these risk distributions can be derived from the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-23 Ralph H. Stern

We propose a novel classifier accuracy metric: the Bayesian Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (CBAUC). The method estimates the area under the ROC curve and is related to the recently proposed Bayesian Error Estimator.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-26 Syeda Sakira Hassan , Heikki Huttunen , Jari Niemi , Jussi Tohka

The area under the ROC curve is widely used as a measure of performance of classification rules. However, it has recently been shown that the measure is fundamentally incoherent, in the sense that it treats the relative severities of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-02 David J. Hand , Christoforos Anagnostopoulos

The area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a useful tool to assess the performance of continuous-scale diagnostic tests on binary classification. In this article, we propose an empirical likelihood (EL) method to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-05 Chul Moon , Xinlei Wang , Johan Lim

Foundation models often generate unreliable answers, while heuristic uncertainty estimators fail to fully distinguish correct from incorrect outputs, causing users to accept erroneous answers without any statistical guarantee. We address…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Zhiyuan Wang , Aniri , Tianlong Chen , Yue Zhang , Heng Tao Shen , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu

The ideal observer (IO) sets an upper performance limit among all observers and has been advocated for assessing and optimizing imaging systems. For general joint detection and estimation (detection-estimation) tasks, estimation ROC (EROC)…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-03 Kaiyan Li , Weimin Zhou , Hua Li , Mark A. Anastasio

The identification of biomarkers with high predictive accuracy is a crucial task in medical research, as it can aid clinicians in making early decisions, thereby reducing morbidity and mortality in high-risk populations. Time-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 María Xosé Rodríguez-Álvarez , Vanda Inácio

The idea of iterative process optimization based on collected output measurements, or "real-time optimization" (RTO), has gained much prominence in recent decades, with many RTO algorithms being proposed, researched, and developed. While…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-08-14 Gene A. Bunin , Grégory François , Dominique Bonvin

We analyze the trade-off between the undetected error probability (i.e., the probability that the channel decoder outputs an erroneous message without detecting the error) and the total error probability in the short blocklength regime. We…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Alexander Sauter , A. Oguz Kislal , Giuseppe Durisi , Gianluigi Liva , Balazs Matuz , Erik G. Ström

Robust Optimal Control (ROC) with adjustable uncertainties has proven to be effective in addressing critical challenges within modern energy networks, especially the reserve and provision problem. However, prior research on ROC with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-19 Yun Li , Neil Yorke-Smith , Tamas Keviczky

This paper presents an evaluation of edge detectors using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis on the BIPED dataset. Our study examines the benefits and drawbacks of applying this technique in Matlab. We observed that while ROC…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Kai Yi Ji

Many fields use the ROC curve and the PR curve as standard evaluations of binary classification methods. Analysis of ROC and PR, however, often gives misleading and inflated performance evaluations, especially with an imbalanced ground…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-23 Chang Cao , Davide Chicco , Michael M. Hoffman

While the area under the ROC curve is perhaps the most common measure that is used to rank the relative performance of different binary classifiers, longstanding field folklore has noted that it can be a measure that ill-captures the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Christopher Ratigan , Lenore Cowen

The doctrinal paradox is analysed from a probabilistic point of view assuming a simple parametric model for the committee's behaviour. The well known issue-by-issue and case-by-case majority rules are compared in this model, by means of the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-13 Aureli Alabert , Mercè Farré

We study finite-sample inference for the trade-off function of two unknown probability distributions, the function that traces the optimal type I/type II error frontier in binary testing. Given samples from distributions $P$ and $Q$, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Kaining Shi , Qiaosen Wang , Cong Ma

This work considers to achieve near-optimal operation for a class of batch processes by employing self-optimizing control (SOC). Comparing with a continuous one, a batch process exhibits stronger nonlinearity with dynamics because of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-08 Chenchen Zhou , Hongxin Su , Xinhui Tang , Yi Cao , Shuang-hua Yang
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