Related papers: Probabilistic shadowing in linear skew products
We study shadowing-type properties for set-valued dynamical systems. In particular, we investigate the periodic shadowing property and its relationship with expansivity and chain transitivity. We establish that for positively expansive…
Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…
Gaussian boson sampling (GBS) is a promising protocol for demonstrating quantum computational advantage. One of the key steps for proving classical hardness of GBS is the so-called ``hiding conjecture'', which asserts that one can ``hide''…
Orbit determination is possible for a chaotic orbit of a dynamical system, given a finite set of observations, provided the initial conditions are at the central time. In a simple discrete model, the standard map, we tackle the problem of…
We simulate long self-avoiding chains using a weighted-biased sampling Monte-Carlo algorithm, and compute the probabilities for chain looping with and without a protrusion. We find that a protrusion near one of the chain's termini reduces…
We present a novel probabilistic approach for optimal path experimental design. In this approach a discrete path optimization problem is defined on a static navigation mesh, and trajectories are modeled as random variables governed by a…
In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…
Parallel transport, or path development, provides a rich characterization of paths which preserves the underlying algebraic structure of concatenation. The path signature is universal among such maps: any (translation-invariant) parallel…
Two-dimensional networks of ordered quantum dots beyond the percolation threshold are studied, as typical example of conducting nanostructures with quenched random disorder. Theory predicts anomalous diffusion with stretched-exponential…
For hidden Markov models one of the most popular estimates of the hidden chain is the Viterbi path -- the path maximising the posterior probability. We consider a more general setting, called the pairwise Markov model, where the joint…
This paper proves that shadowing solutions can be almost surely nonphysical. This finding invalidates the argument that small perturbations in a chaotic system can only have a small impact on its statistical behavior. This theoretical…
We introduce a transient reflected Brownian motion in a multidimensional orthant, which is either absorbed at the apex of the cone or escapes to infinity. We address the question of computing the absorption probability, as a function of the…
In this work we consider a generalized version of Probability Smoothing, the core elementary model for sequential prediction in the state of the art PAQ family of data compression algorithms. Our main contribution is a code length analysis…
We define a regular polynomial skew product $(p(z),q(z,w))$ of $\mathbb{C}^2$ of degree $d\geq 2$ to be special if it is triangularly conjugate to a map of the form $(p(z),q(w))$, where $p$ and $q$ are power maps or $\pm$Chebyshev maps, or…
An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…
We provide a direct proof of Cram\'er's theorem for geodesic random walks in a complete Riemannian manifold $(M,g)$. We show how to exploit the vector space structure of the tangent spaces to study large deviation properties of geodesic…
We prove a structure theorem for topologically conservative real skew product extensions of distal minimal compact metric $\Z$-flows. The main result states that every such extension can be represented by a perturbation of a Rokhlin skew…
In this article we study a theory of support varieties over a skew complete intersection $R$, i.e. a skew polynomial ring modulo an ideal generated by a sequence of regular normal elements. We compute the derived braided Hochschild…
We present a new result about the shadowing of nontransversal chain of heteroclinic connections based on the idea of dropping dimensions. We illustrate this new mechanism with several examples. As an application we discuss this mechanism in…
Bayesian inference for spatial point patterns is often hindered computationally by intractable likelihoods. In the frequentist literature, estimating equations utilizing pseudolikelihoods have long been used for simulation-free parameter…