Related papers: Long-term prediction intervals with many covariate…

Prediction intervals are commonly used in meta-analysis with random-effects models. One widely used method, the Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter prediction interval, replaces the heterogeneity parameter with its point estimate, but its…

In this paper, we show an innovative way to construct bootstrap confidence interval of a signal estimated based on a univariate LSTM model. We take three different types of bootstrap methods for dependent set up. We prescribe some useful…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

Constructing confidence intervals for the coefficients of high-dimensional sparse linear models remains a challenge, mainly because of the complicated limiting distributions of the widely used estimators, such as the lasso. Several methods…

In the recent paper [5], a Bayesian approach for constructing confidence intervals in monotone regression problems is proposed, based on credible intervals. We view this method from a frequentist point of view, and show that it corresponds…

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…

The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the time series forecasting problem based on similarity of trajectories. Various methodologies are introduced and studied, and detailed discussions on hyperparameter optimization, outlier…

Long memory in the sense of slowly decaying autocorrelations is a stylized fact in many time series from economics and finance. The fractionally integrated process is the workhorse model for the analysis of these time series. Nevertheless,…

Dynamic linear regression models forecast the values of a time series based on a linear combination of a set of exogenous time series while incorporating a time series process for the error term. This error process is often assumed to…

Accurate uncertainty estimates can significantly improve the performance of iterative design of experiments, as in Sequential and Reinforcement learning. For many such problems in engineering and the physical sciences, the design task…

We propose a new method to construct confidence intervals for quantities that are associated with a stationary time series, which avoids direct estimation of the asymptotic variances. Unlike the existing tuning-parameter-dependent…

Accurate wind power forecasts depend on reliable wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) utilize huge amounts of computing time, but still have rather low spatial and temporal resolution. However, stochastic wind speed…

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

We propose a conformal prediction method for constructing tight simultaneous prediction intervals for multiple, potentially related, numerical outputs given a single input. This method can be combined with any multi-target regression model…

Classical frequentist approaches to inference for the lasso emphasize exact coverage for each feature, which requires debiasing and severs the connection between confidence intervals and the original lasso estimates. To address this, in…

In this work we consider the task of constructing prediction intervals in an inductive batch setting. We present a discriminative learning framework which optimizes the expected error rate under a budget constraint on the interval sizes.…

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

In this paper, we propose five prediction intervals for the beta autoregressive moving average model. This model is suitable for modeling and forecasting variables that assume values in the interval $(0,1)$. Two of the proposed prediction…

The aim of this paper is to compute one-day-ahead prediction regions for daily curves of electricity demand and price. Three model-based procedures to construct general prediction regions are proposed, all of them using bootstrap…