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This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-01 Cem Cakmakli , Yasin Simsek

Social distancing and stay-at-home are among the few measures that are known to be effective in checking the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 in a given population. The patterns of dependency between such measures and their effects on…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-19 Frank Nielsen , Gautier Marti , Sumanta Ray , Saumyadipta Pyne

The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-21 Xiubin Bruce Wang , Chaolun Ma

A rapidly evolving situation such as the COVID-19 pandemic is a significant challenge for AI/ML models because of its unpredictability. %The most reliable indicator of the pandemic spreading has been the number of test positive cases.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-11-12 Calton Pu , Abhijit Suprem , Rodrigo Alves Lima

Aim of this paper is the description of a new tool to support institutions in the implementation of targeted countermeasures, based on quantitative and multi-scale elements, for the fight and prevention of emergencies, such as the current…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-11-12 A. Sebastianelli , F. Mauro , G. Di Cosmo , F. Passarini , M. Carminati , S. L. Ullo

The ability to track large-scale events as they happen is essential for understanding them and coordinating reactions in an appropriate and timely manner. This is true, for example, in emergency management and decision-making support, where…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Carlo Bono , Barbara Pernici

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic has created many challenges that need immediate attention. Various epidemiological and deep learning models have been developed to predict the COVID-19 outbreak, but all have limitations that affect the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-12-08 Junyi Gao , Rakshith Sharma , Cheng Qian , Lucas M. Glass , Jeffrey Spaeder , Justin Romberg , Jimeng Sun , Cao Xiao

We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction of infected people (either by random testing or by analysis of sewage water), is central to managing the COVID-19 pandemic because it both measures in real time the key variable controlled by…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-24 Markus Müller , Peter M. Derlet , Christopher Mudry , Gabriel Aeppli

Researchers have been long preoccupied with the measuring and monitoring of economic and social deprivation at small scales, neighbourhood, level in order to provide official government agencies and policy makers with more precise data…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-26 Eduardo Viegas , Tim S. Evans

The COVID-19 pandemic offers an unprecedented natural experiment providing insights into the emergence of collective behavioral changes of both exogenous (government mandated) and endogenous (spontaneous reaction to infection risks) origin.…

The novel Corona virus pandemic is one of the biggest worldwide problems right now. While hygiene and wearing masks make up a large portion of the currently suggested precautions by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Sukru Yaren Gelbal , Mustafa Ridvan Cantas , Bilin Aksun-Guvenc , Levent Guvenc

The COVID-19 pandemic has been influencing travel behaviour in many urban areas around the world since the beginning of 2020. As a consequence, bike-sharing schemes have been affected partly due to the change in travel demand and behaviour…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-19 Shahram Heydari , Garyfallos Konstantinoudis , Abdul Wahid Behsoodi

Public transport is one of the most disrupted sectors of the COVID-19 pandemic with reported ridership drops up to 90% in majorly affected countries. As many government authorities strive to partially resume activities, public transport…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-06-11 Konstantinos Gkiotsalitis , Oded Cats

The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-08 Mauricio Herrera

Street View Images (SVI) are a common source of valuable data for researchers. Researchers have used SVI data for estimating pedestrian volumes, demographic surveillance, and to better understand built and natural environments in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-25 Matthew Martell , Nick Terry , Ribhu Sengupta , Chris Salazar , Nicole A. Errett , Scott B. Miles , Joseph Wartman , Youngjun Choe

Effective pandemic control requires timely and coordinated policymaking across administrative regions that are intrinsically interdependent. However, human-driven responses are often fragmented and reactive, with policies formulated in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-15 Ziyi Shi , Xusen Guo , Hongliang Lu , Mingxing Peng , Haotian Wang , Zheng Zhu , Zhenning Li , Yuxuan Liang , Xinhu Zheng , Hai Yang

Street imagery is a promising big data source providing current and historical images in more than 100 countries. Previous studies used this data to audit built environment features. Here we explore a novel application, using Google Street…

We present a unified framework for understanding human social behaviors in raw image sequences. Our model jointly detects multiple individuals, infers their social actions, and estimates the collective actions with a single feed-forward…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-11-29 Timur Bagautdinov , Alexandre Alahi , François Fleuret , Pascal Fua , Silvio Savarese

Physical social encounters are governed by a set of socio-psychological behavioral rules with a high degree of uniform validity. Past research has shown how these rules or the resulting properties of the encounters (e.g. the geometry of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-09-30 Daniel Raumer , Christoph Fuchs , Georg Groh

New coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has constituted a global pandemic and has spread to most countries and regions in the world. By understanding the development trend of a regional epidemic, the epidemic can be controlled using the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-15 Bingjie Yan , Xiangyan Tang , Boyi Liu , Jun Wang , Yize Zhou , Guopeng Zheng , Qi Zou , Yao Lu , Wenxuan Tu
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