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Recently, there has been extensive research on the capabilities of biologically plausible algorithms. In this work, we show how one of such algorithms, called predictive coding, is able to perform causal inference tasks. First, we show how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Tommaso Salvatori , Luca Pinchetti , Amine M'Charrak , Beren Millidge , Thomas Lukasiewicz

Conditional-independence-based discovery uses statistical tests to identify a graphical model that represents the independence structure of variables in a dataset. These tests, however, can be unreliable, and algorithms are sensitive to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Philipp M. Faller , Dominik Janzing

In-context learning (ICL) enhances large language models (LLMs) by incorporating demonstration examples, yet its effectiveness heavily depends on the quality of selected examples. Current methods typically use text embeddings to measure…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Jiale Fu , Yaqing Wang , Simeng Han , Jiaming Fan , Xu Yang

Assessing the magnitude of cause-and-effect relations is one of the central challenges found throughout the empirical sciences. The problem of identification of causal effects is concerned with determining whether a causal effect can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-12-18 Amin Jaber , Jiji Zhang , Elias Bareinboim

Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental tool in various fields of science. While existing approaches are typically designed for a single dataset, we often need to handle multiple datasets with non-identical variable sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Hirofumi Suzuki , Kentaro Kanamori , Takuya Takagi , Thong Pham , Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Gonçalo R. A. Faria , André F. T. Martins , Mário A. T. Figueiredo

We consider the effect of temporal aggregation on instantaneous (non-temporal) causal discovery in general setting. This is motivated by the observation that the true causal time lag is often considerably shorter than the observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-11 Shunxing Fan , Mingming Gong , Kun Zhang

Causal disentanglement aims to uncover a representation of data using latent variables that are interrelated through a causal model. Such a representation is identifiable if the latent model that explains the data is unique. In this paper,…

Real-world complex systems are often modelled by sets of equations with endogenous and exogenous variables. What can we say about the causal and probabilistic aspects of variables that appear in these equations without explicitly solving…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-25 Tineke Blom , Mirthe M. van Diepen , Joris M. Mooij

There are several existing algorithms that under appropriate assumptions can reliably identify a subset of the underlying causal relationships from observational data. This paper introduces the first computationally feasible score-based…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Subramani Mani , Peter L. Spirtes , Gregory F. Cooper

We consider the problem of inferring the conditional independence graph (CIG) of a multivariate stationary dicrete-time Gaussian random process based on a finite length observation. Using information-theoretic methods, we derive a lower…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-06 Gabor Hannak , Alexander Jung , Norbert Goertz

Most constraint-based causal learning algorithms provably return the correct causal graph under certain correctness conditions, such as faithfulness. By representing any constraint-based causal learning algorithm using the notion of a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Kai Z. Teh , Kayvan Sadeghi , Terry Soo

Most causal discovery procedures assume that there are no latent confounders in the system, which is often violated in real-world problems. In this paper, we consider a challenging scenario for causal structure identification, where some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-06 Biwei Huang , Charles Jia Han Low , Feng Xie , Clark Glymour , Kun Zhang

Recovering a unique causal graph from observational data is an ill-posed problem because multiple generating mechanisms can lead to the same observational distribution. This problem becomes solvable only by exploiting specific structural or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Ameya Rathod , Sujay Belsare , Salvik Krishna Nautiyal , Dhruv Laad , Ponnurangam Kumaraguru

The identifiability problem for interventions aims at assessing whether the total causal effect can be written with a do-free formula, and thus be estimated from observational data only. We study this problem, considering multiple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-18 Clément Yvernes , Emilie Devijver , Eric Gaussier

Differentiable causal discovery has made significant advancements in the learning of directed acyclic graphs. However, its application to real-world datasets remains restricted due to the ubiquity of latent confounders and the requirement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Pingchuan Ma , Rui Ding , Qiang Fu , Jiaru Zhang , Shuai Wang , Shi Han , Dongmei Zhang

Observational studies in fields such as epidemiology often rely on covariate adjustment to estimate causal effects. Classical graphical criteria, like the back-door criterion and the generalized adjustment criterion, are powerful tools for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Isabela Belciug , Simon Ferreira , Charles K. Assaad

We establish conditions under which latent causal graphs are nonparametrically identifiable and can be reconstructed from unknown interventions in the latent space. Our primary focus is the identification of the latent structure in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Yibo Jiang , Bryon Aragam

In the fundamental statistics course, students are taught to remember the well-known saying: "Correlation is not Causation". Till now, statistics (i.e., correlation) have developed various successful frameworks, such as Transformer and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Ning Xu , Yifei Gao , Hongshuo Tian , Yongdong Zhang , An-An Liu