Related papers: Approximate Laplace approximations for scalable mo…

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving…

Bayesian hierarchical models with latent Gaussian layers have proven very flexible in capturing complex stochastic behavior and hierarchical structures in high-dimensional spatial and spatio-temporal data. Whereas simulation-based Bayesian…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) performs statistical inference for otherwise intractable probability models by accepting parameter proposals when corresponding simulated datasets are sufficiently close to the observations. Producing…

Laplace's method is used to approximate intractable integrals in a statistical problems. The relative error rate of the approximation is not worse than $O_p(n^{-1})$. We provide the first statistical lower bounds showing that the $n^{-1}$…

We focus on improving the accuracy of an approximate model of a multiscale dynamical system that uses a set of parameter-dependent terms to account for the effects of unresolved or neglected dynamics on resolved scales. We start by…

State-space models are used to describe and analyse dynamical systems. They are ubiquitously used in many scientific fields such as signal processing, finance and ecology to name a few. Particle filters are popular inferential methods used…

Measurement error and missing data in variables used in statistical models are common, and can at worst lead to serious biases in analyses if they are ignored. Yet, these problems are often not dealt with adequately, presumably in part…

A matrix algorithm runs superfast (aka at sublinear cost) if it involves much fewer flops and memory cells than an input matrix has entries. Big Data are frequently represented by matrices of immense sizes that cannot be handled directly…

This work proposes ensemble Kalman randomized maximum likelihood estimation, a new derivative-free method for performing randomized maximum likelihood estimation, which is a method that can be used to generate approximate samples from…

Although the Laplace approximation offers a simple route to uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, its reliance on inverting large Hessian matrices has motivated a range of computationally feasible low-dimensional or sparse…

Laplace approximations are among the simplest and most practical methods for approximate Bayesian inference in neural networks, yet their Euclidean formulation struggles with the highly anisotropic, curved loss surfaces and large symmetry…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a well-established statistical tool for modeling complex nonlinear relationships between covariates and a response assumed to have a conditional distribution in the exponential family. In this article,…

In recent years, methods of approximate parameter estimation have attracted considerable interest in complex problems where exact likelihoods are hard to obtain. In their most basic form, Bayesian methods such as Approximate Bayesian…

For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods remain the mainstay of Bayesian estimation of structural equation models (SEM), though they often incur a high computational cost. We present a bespoke approximate Bayesian approach to SEM, drawing on…

Gaussian variational inference and the Laplace approximation are popular alternatives to Markov chain Monte Carlo that formulate Bayesian posterior inference as an optimization problem, enabling the use of simple and scalable stochastic…

When using R package tmbstan for Bayesian inference, the built-in feature Laplace approximation to the marginal likelihood with random effects integrated out can be switched on and off. There exists no guideline on whether Laplace…

Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to…

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are increasingly used in health research to characterize the association between biomarker trajectories and the risk of clinical events. However, these models usually assume a linear…

A method is introduced for approximate marginal likelihood inference via adaptive Gaussian quadrature in mixed models with a single grouping factor. The core technical contribution is an algorithm for computing the exact gradient of the…