Related papers: Estimating Spread of Contact-Based Contagions in a…
To manage the COVID-19 epidemic effectively, decision-makers in public health need accurate forecasts of case numbers. A potential near real-time predictor of future case numbers is human mobility; however, research on the predictive power…
Working in the multi-type Galton-Watson branching-process framework we analyse the spread of a pandemic via a general multi-type random contact graph. Our model consists of several communities, and takes, as input, parameters that outline…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…
Understanding how contagions (information, infections, etc) are spread on complex networks is important both from practical as well as theoretical point of view. Considerable work has been done in this regard in the past decade or so.…
A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…
Social contact patterns are a key input to many infectious disease models. Contact surveys, where participants are asked to provide information on their recent close and casual contacts with others, are one of the standard methods to…
The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
To contain the propagation of emerging diseases that are transmissible from human to human, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing the interactions between humans are usually implemented. One example of the latter kind of…
Commuting is an important part of daily life. With the gradual recovery from COVID-19 and more people returning to work from the office, the transmission of COVID-19 during commuting becomes a concern. Recent emerging mobility services…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
This study develops a new method to quantify neighborhood activity levels at high spatial and temporal resolutions and test whether, and to what extent, behavioral responses to social distancing policies vary with socioeconomic and…
Human mobility is an important factor in the propagation of infectious diseases. In particular, the spatial spread of a disease is a consequence of human mobility. On the other hand, the control strategies based on mobility restrictions are…
A day in the life of a person involves a broad range of activities which are common across many people. Going beyond diurnal cycles, a central question is: to what extent do individuals act according to patterns shared across an entire…
Major interventions have been introduced worldwide to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Large-scale lockdowns of human movements are effective in reducing the spread, but they come at a cost of significantly limited societal…
Various things propagate through the medium of individuals. Some individuals follow the others and take the states similar to their states a small number of time steps later. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the state…
The COVID-19 infection cases have surged globally, causing devastations to both the society and economy. A key factor contributing to the sustained spreading is the presence of a large number of asymptomatic or hidden spreaders, who mix…
The size of cities is known to play a fundamental role in social and economic life. Yet, its relation to the structure of the underlying network of human interactions has not been investigated empirically in detail. In this paper, we map…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…