Related papers: Optimal Policies for a Pandemic: A Stochastic Game…
We introduce a policy model coupled with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model to study interactions between policy-making and the dynamics of epidemics. We consider both single-region policies, as well as game-theoretic…
Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements.…
Game theory has been an effective tool in the control of disease spread and in suggesting optimal policies at both individual and area levels. In this AMS Notices article, we focus on the decision-making development for the intervention of…
Whenever countries are threatened by a pandemic, as is the case with the COVID-19 virus, governments should take the right actions to safeguard public health as well as to mitigate the negative effects on the economy. In this regard, there…
The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes one of the largest threats in recent decades to the health and economic welfare of populations globally. In this paper, we analyze different types of policy measures designed to fight the spread of the…
In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…
In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
We design and analyze a multi-level game-theoretic model of hierarchical policy interventions for epidemic control, such as those in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model captures the potentially mismatched priorities among a…
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…
In this research paper we modify a classical SIR model to better adapt to the dynamics of COVID-19, that is we propose the heterogeneous SQAIRD model where COVID-19 spreads over a population of economic agents, namely: the elderly, adults…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
Individual behaviors play an essential role in the dynamics of transmission of infectious diseases, including COVID--19. This paper studies a dynamic game model that describes the social distancing behaviors during an epidemic, assuming a…
As a common strategy of contagious disease containment, lockdowns will inevitably weaken the economy. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic underscores the trade-off arising from public health and economic cost. An optimal lockdown policy to…
We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…
Analysing and understanding the transmission and evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is mandatory to be able to design the best social and medical policies, foresee their outcomes and deal with all the subsequent socio-economic effects. We…
Pandemics involve the high transmission of a disease that impacts global and local health and economic patterns. The impact of a pandemic can be minimized by enforcing certain restrictions on a community. However, while minimizing infection…
Understanding how to effectively control an epidemic spreading on a network is a problem of paramount importance for the scientific community. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for policies that mitigate the spread,…
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is one of the standard models of disease spreading. Here we analyse an extended SEIR model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, believed to play an important role…