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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in how people are currently living their lives. To determine how to best reduce the effects of the pandemic and start reopening societies, governments have drawn insights from…

Classical epidemiological models assume homogeneous populations. There have been important extensions to model heterogeneous populations, when the identity of the sub-populations is known, such as age group or geographical location. Here,…

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly challenged traditional epidemiological models due to factors such as delayed diagnosis, asymptomatic transmission, isolation-induced contact changes, and underreported mortality. In response to these…

In order to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing restrictions, which have been widely carried out as policy choice to curb the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around the world, we formulate and discuss a staged and…

During an epidemic, infectious individuals might not be detectable until some time after becoming infected. The studies show that carriers with mild or no symptoms are the main contributors to the transmission of a virus within the…

The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…

The experience of Singapur and South Korea makes it clear that under certain circumstances massive testing is an effective way for containing the advance of the COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a modified SEIR model which takes into…

We propose an epidemiological model that includes the mobility patterns of the individuals, in the spirit to those considered in (Barmak, 2011, 2016) and (Medus, 2011). We assume that people move around in a city of 120x120 blocks with 300…

The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…

The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and…

Currently, the world has been facing the brunt of a pandemic due to a disease called COVID-19 for the last 2 years. To study the spread of such infectious diseases it is important to not only understand their temporal evolution but also the…

In this work, we develop a spatial SEIAR-type epidemic model considering a quarantined population (denoted as Q), which we call the SQEIAR model. The dynamics of the SQEIAR model are described by six Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)…

Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. They are all publishing the number of new individuals infected, cured and dead, along with…

This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…

The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the…

In this article, we consider a dynamic epidemiology model for the spread of the COVID-19 infection. Starting from the classical SEIR model, the model is modified so as to better describe characteristic features of the underlying pathogen…

We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…