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Understanding the predictions made by deep learning models remains a central challenge, especially in high-stakes applications. A promising approach is to equip models with the ability to answer counterfactual questions -- hypothetical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Inwoo Hwang , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

Calibration is a frequently invoked concept when useful label probability estimates are required on top of classification accuracy. A calibrated model is a function whose values correctly reflect underlying label probabilities. Calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Alireza Torabian , Ruth Urner

Conditional acceptability refers to how plausible a conditional statement is perceived to be. It plays an important role in communication and reasoning, as it influences how individuals interpret implications, assess arguments, and make…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Jasmin Orth , Philipp Mondorf , Barbara Plank

Model averaging techniques in the actuarial literature aim to forecast future longevity appropriately by combining forecasts derived from various models. This approach often yields more accurate predictions than those generated by a single…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-28 Giovanna Bimonte , Maria Russolillo , Han Lin Shang , Yang Yang

Interpretability and uncertainty quantification in machine learning can provide justification for decisions, promote scientific discovery and lead to a better understanding of model behavior. Symbolic regression provides inherently…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-11-23 G. F. Bomarito , P. E. Leser , N. C. M Strauss , K. M. Garbrecht , J. D. Hochhalter

Shapley values, a game theoretic concept, has been one of the most popular tools for explaining Machine Learning (ML) models in recent years. Unfortunately, the two most common approaches, conditional and marginal, to calculating Shapley…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-11 Ilya Rozenfeld

Shapley effects are a particularly interpretable approach to assessing how a function depends on its various inputs. The existing literature contains various estimators for this class of sensitivity indices in the context of nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Akira Horiguchi , Matthew T. Pratola

Algorithmic approaches to interpreting machine learning models have proliferated in recent years. We carry out human subject tests that are the first of their kind to isolate the effect of algorithmic explanations on a key aspect of model…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-05-06 Peter Hase , Mohit Bansal

Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-08-10 Marco Tulio Ribeiro , Sameer Singh , Carlos Guestrin

Recent studies of generalization in deep learning have observed a puzzling trend: accuracies of models on one data distribution are approximately linear functions of the accuracies on another distribution. We explain this trend under an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Horia Mania , Suvrit Sra

The ability to interpret machine learning models has become increasingly important now that machine learning is used to inform consequential decisions. We propose an approach called model extraction for interpreting complex, blackbox…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-14 Osbert Bastani , Carolyn Kim , Hamsa Bastani

The wide-spread adoption of representation learning technologies in clinical decision making strongly emphasizes the need for characterizing model reliability and enabling rigorous introspection of model behavior. While the former need is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Prasanna Sattigeri , Deepta Rajan , Bindya Venkatesh

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-11-28 Scott Lundberg , Su-In Lee

Explainable AI (XAI) methods identify which features are relevant to a model's predictions but often fail to clarify why certain decisions are made. In this work, we present a novel method that integrates causality with argument-based…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Henry Salgado , Meagan R. Kendall , Martine Ceberio

Individuals use models to guide decisions, but many models are wrong. This paper studies which misspecified models are likely to persist when individuals also entertain alternative models. Consider an agent who uses her model to learn the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-08-22 Cuimin Ba

In naturalistic learning problems, a model's input contains a wide range of features, some useful for the task at hand, and others not. Of the useful features, which ones does the model use? Of the task-irrelevant features, which ones does…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Katherine L. Hermann , Andrew K. Lampinen

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) often uses deep learning models to predict the future behavior of ongoing processes, such as predicting process outcomes. While these models achieve high accuracy, their lack of interpretability…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Soobin Chae , Suhwan Lee , Hanna Hauptmann , Hajo A. Reijers , Xixi Lu

As artificial intelligence is increasingly affecting all parts of society and life, there is growing recognition that human interpretability of machine learning models is important. It is often argued that accuracy or other similar…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-27 Kush R. Varshney , Prashant Khanduri , Pranay Sharma , Shan Zhang , Pramod K. Varshney

We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection $\{(S_i,l_i)\}_{i=1}^n$, where each $S_i$ is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of $X_i…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-20 David Lopez-Paz , Krikamol Muandet , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ilya Tolstikhin

Current practice in interpretable machine learning often focuses on explaining the final model trained from data, e.g., by using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method. The recently developed Shapley variable importance cloud…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-19 Yilin Ning , Mingxuan Liu , Nan Liu