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Clinical researchers use disease progression models to understand patient status and characterize progression patterns from longitudinal health records. One approach for disease progression modeling is to describe patient status using a…

A goal of clinical researchers is to understand the progression of a disease through a set of biomarkers. Researchers often conduct observational studies, where they collect numerous samples from selected subjects throughout multiple years.…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-07-27 Bum Chul Kwon

Progressive diseases worsen over time and are characterised by monotonic change in features that track disease progression. Here we connect ideas from two formerly separate methodologies -- event-based and hidden Markov modelling -- to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Peter A. Wijeratne , Daniel C. Alexander

A particular challenge for disease progression modeling is the heterogeneity of a disease and its manifestations in the patients. Existing approaches often assume the presence of a single disease progression characteristics which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Taha Ceritli , Andrew P. Creagh , David A. Clifton

In medicine, comorbidities refer to the presence of multiple, co-occurring diseases. Due to their co-occurring nature, the course of one comorbidity is often highly dependent on the course of the other disease and, hence, treatments can…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Basil Maag , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mathias Kraus , Maytal Saar-Tsechansky , Thomas Züger

Modeling disease progression through multiple stages is critical for clinical decision-making for chronic diseases, e.g., cancer, diabetes, chronic kidney diseases, and so on. Existing approaches often model the disease progression as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Haoyu Yang , Sanjoy Dey , Pablo Meyer

Continuous-time multistate models are widely used for analyzing interval-censored data on disease progression over time. Sometimes, diseases manifest differently and what appears to be a coherent collection of symptoms is the expression of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Yidan Shi , Leilei Zeng , Mary E. Thompson , Suzanne L. Tyas

In order to deliver effective care, health management must consider the distinctive trajectories of chronic diseases. These diseases recurrently undergo acute, unstable, and stable phases, each of which requires a different treatment…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-03 Christof Naumzik , Stefan Feuerriegel , Anne Molgaard Nielsen

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used for disease progression modeling when the true patient health state is not fully known. Since HMMs typically have multiple local optima, incorporating additional patient covariates can improve…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-05 Matt Baucum , Anahita Khojandi , Theodore Papamarkou

Background: Biomedical data are usually collections of longitudinal data assessed at certain points in time. Clinical observations assess the presences and severity of symptoms, which are the basis for description and modeling of disease…

Databases · Computer Science 2023-07-26 Richard Fechner , Jens Dörpinghaus , Robert Rockenfeller , Jennifer Faber

People are living longer than ever before, and with this arises new complications and challenges for humanity. Among the most pressing of these challenges is of understanding the role of aging in the development of dementia. This paper is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Jonathan P Williams , Curtis B Storlie , Terry M Therneau , Clifford R Jack , Jan Hannig

With the increasing availability of wearable devices, continuous monitoring of individuals' physiological and behavioral patterns has become significantly more accessible. Access to these continuous patterns about individuals' statuses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-30 Ramin Ramazi , Christine Perndorfer , Emily Soriano , Jean-Philippe Laurenceau , Rahmatollah Beheshti

We consider the task of learning mappings from sequential data to real-valued responses. We present and evaluate an approach to learning a type of hidden Markov model (HMM) for regression. The learning process involves inferring the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Keith Noto , Mark Craven

Medical researchers are coming to appreciate that many diseases are in fact complex, heterogeneous syndromes composed of subpopulations that express different variants of a related complication. Time series data extracted from individual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-30 Peter Schulam , Raman Arora

Modeling disease progression in healthcare administrative databases is complicated by the fact that patients are observed only at irregular intervals when they seek healthcare services. In a longitudinal cohort of 76,888 patients with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Aman Verma , Guido Powell , Yu Luo , David Stephens , David L. Buckeridge

Disease progression modeling aims to characterize and predict how a patient's disease complications worsen over time based on longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). For diseases such as type 2 diabetes, accurate progression modeling…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Tingsong Xiao , Yao An Lee , Zelin Xu , Yupu Zhang , Zibo Liu , Yu Huang , Jiang Bian , Jingchuan Guo , Zhe Jiang

Individual-level epidemic models are increasingly being used to help understand the transmission dynamics of various infectious diseases. However, fitting such models to individual-level epidemic data is challenging, as we often only know…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-17 Dirk Douwes-Schultz , Rob Deardon , Alexandra M. Schmidt

Understanding disease dynamics is crucial for managing wildlife populations and assessing spillover risk to domestic animals and humans, but infection data on free-ranging animals are difficult to obtain. Because pathogen and parasite…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-26 Dongmin Kim , Théo Michelot , Katherine Mertes , Jared A. Stabach , John Fieberg

We develop Graph-Coupled Hidden Markov Models (GCHMMs) for modeling the spread of infectious disease locally within a social network. Unlike most previous research in epidemiology, which typically models the spread of infection at the level…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Wen Dong , Alex Pentland , Katherine A. Heller

We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-11-15 Avinash Bukkittu , Baihan Lin , Trung Vu , Itsik Pe'er
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