English
Related papers

Related papers: Uncertainty quantification for fault slip inversio…

200 papers

In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-20 Zai-Ying Zhou

With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…

Rare event simulation and rare event probability estimation are important tasks within the analysis of systems subject to uncertainty and randomness. Simultaneously, accurately estimating rare event probabilities is an inherently difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-18 Max Ehre , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

A multifidelity method for the nonlinear propagation of uncertainties in the presence of stochastic accelerations is presented. The proposed algorithm treats the uncertainty propagation (UP) problem by separating the propagation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Francesco Sanfedino

We propose a Bayesian elastic net that uses empirical likelihood and develop an efficient tuning of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for posterior sampling. The proposed model relaxes the assumptions on the identity of the error distribution,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Chul Moon , Adel Bedoui

The interpretation of seismic images faces challenges due to the presence of several uncertainty sources. Uncertainties exist in data measurements, source positioning, and subsurface geophysical properties. Understanding uncertainties' role…

In recent years, machine learning has witnessed extensive adoption across various sectors, yet its application in medical image-based disease detection and diagnosis remains challenging due to distribution shifts in real-world data. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Masoumeh Javanbakhat , Md Tasnimul Hasan , Cristoph Lippert

Classification of high dimensional data finds wide-ranging applications. In many of these applications equipping the resulting classification with a measure of uncertainty may be as important as the classification itself. In this paper we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-12 Andrea L. Bertozzi , Xiyang Luo , Andrew M. Stuart , Konstantinos C. Zygalakis

This article explores the optimization of variational approximations for posterior covariances of Gaussian multiway arrays. To achieve this, we establish a natural differential geometric optimization framework on the space using the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-10 Quinn Simonis , Martin T. Wells

We consider a class of inverse problems where it is possible to aggregate the results of multiple experiments. This class includes problems where the forward model is the solution operator to linear ODEs or PDEs. The tremendous size of such…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2018-08-23 Aleksandr Aravkin , Michael P. Friedlander , Tristan van Leeuwen

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-14 Ramis Khabibullin , Sergei Seleznev

This letter proposes a data-driven sparse polynomial chaos expansion-based surrogate model for the stochastic economic dispatch problem considering uncertainty from wind power. The proposed method can provide accurate estimations for the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-20 Xiaoting Wang , Rong-Peng Liu , Xiaozhe Wang , Yunhe Hou , François Bouffard

Quantiles are useful characteristics of random variables that can provide substantial information on distributions compared with commonly used summary statistics such as means. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian quantile trend filtering…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-23 Takahiro Onizuka , Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Gravity inversion is the problem of estimating subsurface density distributions from observed gravitational field data. We consider the two-dimensional (2D) case, in which recovering density models from one-dimensional (1D) measurements…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to inverse problems, as it could provide decision-makers with valuable information about the inversion results. For example, seismic inversion is a notoriously ill-posed inverse problem due to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Muhammad Izzatullah , Tariq Alkhalifah , Juan Romero , Miguel Corrales , Nick Luiken , Matteo Ravasi

We present a numerical investigation of stochastic transport in ideal fluids. According to Holm (Proc Roy Soc, 2015) and Cotter et al. (2017), the principles of transformation theory and multi-time homogenisation, respectively, imply a…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-09-28 Colin J. Cotter , Dan Crisan , Darryl D. Holm , Wei Pan , Igor Shevchenko

We show that unconverged stochastic gradient descent can be interpreted as a procedure that samples from a nonparametric variational approximate posterior distribution. This distribution is implicitly defined as the transformation of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-07 Dougal Maclaurin , David Duvenaud , Ryan P. Adams

This work is devoted to the development of a distributionally robust active fault diagnosis approach for a class of nonlinear systems, which takes into account any ambiguity in distribution information of the uncertain model parameters.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-12 Ioannis Tzortzis , Marios M. Polycarpou

This paper presents a novel mathematical framework for representing uncertainty in large deformation diffeomorphic image registration. The Bayesian posterior distribution over the deformations aligning a moving and a fixed image is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-01-13 Demian Wassermann , Matt Toews , Marc Niethammer , William Wells

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-20 Hongqiao Wang , Guang Lin , Jinglai Li