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This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

We define generalized innovations associated with generalized error models having arbitrary distributions, that is, distributions that can be mixtures of continuous and discrete distributions. These models include stochastic volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Kilani Ghoudi , Bouchra R. Nasri , Bruno N. Remillard

A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-18 Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach , Qian Chen

We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time-series data.…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-07-12 Federico A. Bugni , Jia Li , Qiyuan Li

Motivated by quantum resource theories, we introduce a notion of incompatibility for quantum measurements relative to a reference basis. The notion arises by considering states diagonal in that basis and investigating whether probability…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-08-21 Georgios Styliaris , Paolo Zanardi

The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-03-24 Yannick Armenti , Stephane Crepey , Samuel Drapeau , Antonis Papapantoleon

This paper introduces and studies factor risk measures. While risk measures only rely on the distribution of a loss random variable, in many cases risk needs to be measured relative to some major factors. In this paper, we introduce a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-15 Hirbod Assa , Peng Liu

In this paper, we seek to understand the behavior of dynamical systems that are perturbed by a parameter that changes discretely in time. If we impose certain conditions, we can study certain embedded systems within a hybrid system as…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-08-04 Xavier Garcia , Jennifer Kunze , Thomas Rudelius , Anthony Sanchez , Sijing Shao , Emily Speranza , Chad Vidden

Variance is a ubiquitous quantity in quantum information theory. Given a basis, we consider the averaged variances of a fixed diagonal observable in a pure state under all possible permutations on the components of the pure state and call…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-07-14 Ming-Jing Zhao , Lin Zhang , Shao-Ming Fei

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Lisa Wimmer , Eyke Hüllermeier , Thomas Nagler

Stochastic monotonicity is a well known partial order relation between probability measures defined on the same partially ordered set. Strassen Theorem establishes equivalence between stochastic monotonicity and the existence of a coupling…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-01 Davide Gabrielli , Ida Germana Minelli

We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-10 Istvan Varga-Haszonits , Imre Kondor

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-05 Johannes O. Royset

Expected Shortfall (ES) in several variants has been proposed as remedy for the defi-ciencies of Value-at-Risk (VaR) which in general is not a coherent risk measure. In fact, most definitions of ES lead to the same results when applied to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Carlo Acerbi , Dirk Tasche

Various members of the class of weighted insurance premiums and risk capital allocation rules have been researched from a number of perspectives. Corresponding formulas in the case of parametric families of distributions have been derived,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Nadezhda Gribkova , Ričardas Zitikis

Stochastic comparisons of series and parallel systems are important in many areas of engineering, operations research and reliability analysis. These comparisons allow for the evaluation of the performance and reliability of systems under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-09 CM Revathi , Rajesh Moharana , Raju Bhakta

Scalar dynamic risk measures for univariate positions in continuous time are commonly represented as backward stochastic differential equations. In the multivariate setting, dynamic risk measures have been defined and studied as families of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-19 Çağın Ararat , Zachary Feinstein

A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-16 Giuseppe Storti , Chao Wang

Randomness in financial markets requires modern and robust multivariate models of risk measures. This paper proposes a new approach for modeling multivariate risk measures under Wasserstein barycenters of probability measures supported on…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-14 M. Andrea Arias-Serna , Jean-Michel Loubes , Francisco J. Caro-Lopera

The classical concept of inequality curves and measures is extended to conditional inequality curves and measures and a curve of conditional inequality measures is introduced. This extension provides a more nuanced analysis of inequality in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-23 Alicja Jokiel-Rokita , Sylwester Piątek , Rafał Topolnicki
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