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One of the most common ways researchers compare survival outcomes across treatments when confounding is present is using Cox regression. This model is limited by its underlying assumption of proportional hazards; in some cases, substantial…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-02 Elizabeth A. Handorf , Marc Smaldone , Sujana Movva , Nandita Mitra

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Ziang Niu , Yuwen Gu , Wei Li

Estimating the effects of interventions on patient outcome is one of the key aspects of personalized medicine. Their inference is often challenged by the fact that the training data comprises only the outcome for the administered treatment,…

Accurately selecting and estimating smooth functional effects in additive models with potentially many functions is a challenging task. We introduce a novel Demmler-Reinsch basis expansion to model the functional effects that allows us to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Paul Bach , Nadja Klein

When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-10-28 Elizabeth A. Stuart

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Kush Bhatia , Nikki Lijing Kuang , Yi-An Ma , Yixin Wang

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

It is important to estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE) when compliance with a treatment assignment is incomplete. The previously proposed methods for LATE estimation required all relevant variables to be jointly observed in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-22 Kazuhiko Shinoda , Takahiro Hoshino

Instrumental variable methods are popular choices in combating unmeasured confounding to obtain less biased effect estimates. However, we demonstrate that alternative methods may give less biased estimates depending on the nature of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-21 Yun Li , Yoonseok Lee , Friedrich K Port , Bruce M Robinson

In causal mediation analysis, the natural direct and indirect effects (natural effects) are nonparametrically unidentifiable in the presence of treatment-induced confounding, which motivated the development of randomized interventional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Ang Yu , Li Ge , Felix Elwert

We propose a method to reduce variance in treatment effect estimates in the setting of high-dimensional data. In particular, we introduce an approach for learning a metric to be used in matching treatment and control groups. The metric…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-15 Jonathan Bates , Alexander Cloninger

Mediation analysis is critical to understanding the mechanisms underlying exposure-outcome relationships. In this paper, we identify the instrumental variable (IV)-direct effect of the exposure on the outcome not through the mediator, using…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Mark J van der Laan

In the absence of data from a randomized trial, researchers often aim to use observational data to draw causal inference about the effect of a treatment on a time-to-event outcome. In this context, interest often focuses on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Ted Westling , Alex Luedtke , Peter Gilbert , Marco Carone

We provide an approach to exploratory data analysis in matched observational studies with a single intervention and multiple endpoints. In such settings, the researcher would like to explore evidence for actual treatment effects among these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mengqi Lin , Colin Fogarty

The real-world testing of decisions made using causal machine learning models is an essential prerequisite for their successful application. We focus on evaluating and improving contextual treatment assignment decisions: these are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Desi R. Ivanova , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Adam Foster

Mediation analysis allows one to use observational data to estimate the importance of each potential mediating pathway involved in the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. However, current approaches to mediation analysis with…

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

In randomized trials with continuous-valued outcomes the goal is often to estimate the difference in average outcomes between two treatment groups. However, the outcome in some trials is longitudinal, meaning that multiple measurements of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-21 Alejandro Schuler

Performing causal inference in observational studies requires we assume confounding variables are correctly adjusted for. G-computation methods are often used in these scenarios, with several recent proposals using Bayesian versions of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Daniel Daly-Grafstein , Paul Gustafson

Time-to-event endpoints are frequently used as outcomes in oncology and other disease areas where the outcome of interest may not be observed within a predetermined period. Although many analytical methods address the challenges of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Chen-Yen Lin , Susan Halabi , Taehwa Choi