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This paper is concerned with the well known Jeffreys-Lindley paradox. In a Bayesian set up, the so-called paradox arises when a point null hypothesis is tested and an objective prior is sought for the alternative hypothesis. In particular,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-16 Cristiano Villa , Stephen Walker

This paper discusses the dual interpretation of the Jeffreys--Lindley's paradox associated with Bayesian posterior probabilities and Bayes factors, both as a differentiation between frequentist and Bayesian statistics and as a pointer to…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-02 Christian Robert

In 1957, Lindley published "A statistical paradox" in Biometrika, revealing a fundamental conflict between frequentist and Bayesian inference as sample size approaches infinity. We present a new paradox of a different kind: a conflict…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Miodrag M. Lovric

The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox stands as the most profound divergence between frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing. Yet despite more than six decades of discussion, this paradox remains frequently misunderstood--even in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Miodrag M. Lovric

Inference from limited data requires a notion of measure on parameter space, most explicit in the Bayesian framework as a prior. Here we demonstrate that Jeffreys prior, the best-known uninformative choice, introduces enormous bias when…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-04-03 Michael C. Abbott , Benjamin B. Machta

Jeffreys-Lindley paradox is a case where frequentist and Bayesian hypothesis testing methodologies contradict with each other. This has caused confusion among data analysts for selecting a methodology for their statistical inference tasks.…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-03-20 Priyantha Wijayatunga

The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox exposes a rift between Bayesian and frequentist hypothesis testing that strikes at the heart of statistical inference. Contrary to what most current literature suggests, the paradox was central to the Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-21 Eric-Jan Wagenmakers , Alexander Ly

It has long been known that for the comparison of pairwise nested models, a decision based on the Bayes factor produces a consistent model selector (in the frequentist sense). Here we go beyond the usual consistency for nested pairwise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-21 George Casella , F. Javier Girón , M. Lina Martínez , Elías Moreno

A Bayesian inference method for problems with small samples and sparse data is presented in this paper. A general type of prior ($\propto 1/\sigma^{q}$) is proposed to formulate the Bayesian posterior for inference problems under small…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-14 Jingjing He , Xuefei Guan

Bayesian methods are increasingly applied in these days in the theory and practice of statistics. Any Bayesian inference depends on a likelihood and a prior. Ideally one would like to elicit a prior from related sources of information or…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-11 Malay Ghosh

The so-called Lindley paradox is a counterintuitive statistical effect where the Bayesian and frequentist approaches to hypothesis testing give radically different answers, depending on the choice of the prior distribution. In this paper we…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-02-17 Camillo Mauri , Matteo G. A. Paris

We introduce a new class of priors for Bayesian hypothesis testing, which we name "cake priors". These priors circumvent Bartlett's paradox (also called the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox); the problem associated with the use of diffuse priors…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-26 John T. Ormerod , Michael Stewart , Weichang Yu , Sarah E. Romanes

In many common situations, a Bayesian credible interval will be, given the same data, very similar to a frequentist confidence interval, and researchers will interpret these intervals in a similar fashion. However, no predictable similarity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-25 Harlan Campbell , Paul Gustafson

The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox displays how the use of a p-value (or number of standard deviations z) in a frequentist hypothesis test can lead to an inference that is radically different from that of a Bayesian hypothesis test in the form…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Robert D. Cousins

Inference and estimation are fundamental in statistics, system identification, and machine learning. When prior knowledge about the system is available, Bayesian analysis provides a natural framework for encoding it through a prior…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-29 Yibo Shi , Braghadeesh Lakshminarayanan , Cristian R. Rojas

We revisit the flatland paradox proposed by \cite{ston1976} which is an example of non-conglomerability. The aim of the paper is to show that the improperness of the prior is not directly involved in the inconsistency. First, we show that…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-10 Pierre Druilhet

Consider the problem of high dimensional variable selection for the Gaussian linear model when the unknown error variance is also of interest. In this paper, we show that the use of conjugate shrinkage priors for Bayesian variable selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Gemma E. Moran , Veronika Rockova , Edward I. George

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Ellis Scharfenaker , Duncan K. Foley

In this paper we introduce objective proper prior distributions for hypothesis testing and model selection based on measures of divergence between the competing models; we call them divergence based (DB) priors. DB priors have simple forms…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-27 M. J. Bayarri , G. García-Donato

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-22 Andrew Gelman , Daniel Simpson , Michael Betancourt
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