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Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

The normalizing constant plays an important role in Bayesian computation, and there is a large literature on methods for computing or approximating normalizing constants that cannot be evaluated in closed form. When the normalizing constant…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-02 Yuling Yao , Collin Cademartori , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

We consider the problem of statistical inference on parameters of a target population when auxiliary observations are available from related populations. We propose a flexible empirical Bayes approach that can be applied on top of any…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-15 Michael Law , Peter Bühlmann , Ya'acov Ritov

In this article, we propose a novel method for sampling potential functions based on noisy observation data of a finite number of observables in quantum canonical ensembles, which leads to the accurate sampling of a wide class of test…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-08 Ziheng Chen , Zhennan Zhou

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation inference using a rescaled smooth Gaussian field as a prior for a multidimensional function. The rescaling is achieved using a Gamma variable and the procedure can be viewed as choosing an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 A. W. van der Vaart , J. H. van Zanten

Nonresponse weighting adjustment using the response propensity score is a popular tool for handling unit nonresponse. Statistical inference after the nonresponse weighting adjustment is complicated because the effect of estimating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Hejian Sang , Jae Kwang Kim

Sampling is a fundamental problem in computer science and statistics. However, for a given task and stream, it is often not possible to choose good sampling probabilities in advance. We derive a general framework for adaptively changing the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-16 Daniel Ting

Statistical models with constrained probability distributions are abundant in machine learning. Some examples include regression models with norm constraints (e.g., Lasso), probit, many copula models, and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA).…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-22 Shiwei Lan , Babak Shahbaba

To infer the parameters of mechanistic models with intractable likelihoods, techniques such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly being adopted. One of the main disadvantages of ABC in practical situations, however, is…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-03 Jonathan U Harrison , Ruth E Baker

This article is concerned with the mathematical analysis of a family of adaptive importance sampling algorithms applied to diffusion processes. These methods, referred to as Adaptive Biasing Potential methods, are designed to efficiently…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-10 Michel Benaïm , Charles-Edouard Bréhier

Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but non-zero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-22 Lin Ge , Yuzi Zhang , Lance A. Waller , Robert H. Lyles

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Nan Feng , Xun Huan

This paper considers a distributed adaptive optimization problem, where all agents only have access to their local cost functions with a common unknown parameter, whereas they mean to collaboratively estimate the true parameter and find the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Yaqun Yang , Jinlong Lei , Guanghui Wen , Yiguang Hong

Motivated by the goal of improving the efficiency of small sample design, we propose a novel Bayesian stochastic approximation method to estimate the root of a regression function. The method features adaptive local modelling and…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-08 Jin Xu , Cui Xiong , Rongji Mu

Supremum norm loss is intuitively more meaningful to quantify function estimation error in statistics. In the context of multivariate nonparametric regression with unknown error, we propose a Bayesian procedure based on spike-and-slab prior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-29 William Weimin Yoo , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

Computation · Statistics 2010-07-28 Michael Blum

Estimating the maximum mean finds a variety of applications in practice. In this paper, we study estimation of the maximum mean using an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach where the sampling budget is adaptively allocated to one of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-09 Zhang Kun , Liu Guangwu , Shi Wen

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Yutao Liu , Andrew Gelman , Qixuan Chen

In this study, variable acceptance sampling plans under Type I hybrid censoring is designed for a lot of independent and identical units with exponential lifetimes using Bayesian estimate of the parameter $\vartheta$. This approach is new…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Ashlyn Maria Mathai , Mahesh Kumar

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Hrushikesh Loya , Pranav Poduval , Deepak Anand , Neeraj Kumar , Amit Sethi