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Accurately forecasting carbon prices is essential for informed energy market decision-making, guiding sustainable energy planning, and supporting effective decarbonization strategies. However, it remains challenging due to structural breaks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Runsheng Ren , Jing Li , Yanxiu Li , Shixun Huang , Jun Shen , Wanqing Li , John Le , Sheng Wang

Environmental air quality affects people's life, obtaining real-time and accurate environmental air quality has a profound guiding significance for the development of social activities. At present, environmental air quality measurement…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-03-01 Zhenyu Wang , Wei Zheng , Chunfeng Song

Deep learning is revolutionizing weather forecasting, with new data-driven models achieving accuracy on par with operational physical models for medium-term predictions. However, these models often lack interpretability, making their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-11 David Millard , Arielle Carr , Stéphane Gaudreault

In this paper we present a family of algorithms that can simultaneously align and cluster sets of multidimensional curves measured on a discrete time grid. Our approach is based on a generative mixture model that allows non-linear time…

Applications · Statistics 2012-12-12 Darya Chudova , Scott Gaffney , Padhraic Smyth

Spatiotemporal time series forecasting plays a key role in a wide range of real-world applications. While significant progress has been made in this area, fully capturing and leveraging spatiotemporal heterogeneity remains a fundamental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Zheng Dong , Renhe Jiang , Haotian Gao , Hangchen Liu , Jinliang Deng , Qingsong Wen , Xuan Song

High resolution mapping of PM2.5 concentration over Tehran city is challenging because of the complicated behavior of numerous sources of pollution and the insufficient number of ground air quality monitoring stations. Alternatively, high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Hossein Bagheri

Traffic prediction is critical for optimizing travel scheduling and enhancing public safety, yet the complex spatial and temporal dynamics within traffic data present significant challenges for accurate forecasting. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Lingxiao Cao , Bin Wang , Guiyuan Jiang , Yanwei Yu , Junyu Dong

The exponential growth of multivariate time series data from sensor networks in domains like industrial monitoring and smart cities requires efficient and accurate forecasting models. Current deep learning methods often fail to adequately…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Xinxing Zhou , Jiaqi Ye , Shubao Zhao , Ming Jin , Chengyi Yang , Yanlong Wen , Xiaojie Yuan

We present a probabilistic forecasting framework based on convolutional neural network for multiple related time series forecasting. The framework can be applied to estimate probability density under both parametric and non-parametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-17 Yitian Chen , Yanfei Kang , Yixiong Chen , Zizhuo Wang

Air pollution remains a leading global health and environmental risk, particularly in regions vulnerable to episodic air pollution spikes due to wildfires, urban haze and dust storms. Accurate forecasting of particulate matter (PM)…

Weather prediction is a quintessential problem involving the forecasting of a complex, nonlinear, and chaotic high-dimensional dynamical system. This work introduces an efficient reduced-order modeling (ROM) framework for short-range…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Amirpasha Hedayat , Karthik Duraisamy

The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-13 Sophie Giffard-Roisin , Mo Yang , Guillaume Charpiat , Christina Kumler-Bonfanti , Balázs Kégl , Claire Monteleoni

Temporal non-stationarity, the phenomenon that time series distributions change over time, poses fundamental challenges to reliable time series forecasting. Intuitively, the complex time series can be decomposed into two factors, \ie…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Mingyuan Xia , Chunxu Zhang , Zijian Zhang , Hao Miao , Qidong Liu , Yuanshao Zhu , Bo Yang

Downsampling-based methods for time series forecasting have attracted increasing attention due to their superiority in capturing sequence trends. However, this approaches mainly capture dependencies within subsequences but neglect…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Zhangyao Song , Nanqing Jiang , Miaohong He , Xiaoyu Zhao , Tao Guo

The first part of this paper introduces a portfolio approach for quantifying the risk measures of pollution risk in the presence of dependence of PM$_{2.5}$ concentration of cities. The model is based on a copula dependence structure. For…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-18 Halis Sak , Guanyu Yang , Bailiang Li , Weifeng Li

Accurate and interpretable air pollution forecasting is crucial for public health, but most models face a trade-off between performance and interpretability. This study proposes a physics-guided, interpretable-by-design spatiotemporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Zhiguo Zhang , Xiaoliang Ma , Daniel Schlesinger

Time series forecasting is a significant problem in many applications, e.g., financial predictions and business optimization. Modern datasets can have multiple correlated time series, which are often generated with global (shared)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Ling Chen , Weiqi Chen , Binqing Wu , Youdong Zhang , Bo Wen , Chenghu Yang

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

Timely accurate traffic forecast is crucial for urban traffic control and guidance. Due to the high nonlinearity and complexity of traffic flow, traditional methods cannot satisfy the requirements of mid-and-long term prediction tasks and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-13 Bing Yu , Haoteng Yin , Zhanxing Zhu

Estimating health benefits of reducing fossil fuel use from improved air quality provides important rationales for carbon emissions abatement. Simulating pollution concentration is a crucial step of the estimation, but traditional…

General Economics · Economics 2021-06-01 Da Zhang , Qingyi Wang , Shaojie Song , Simiao Chen , Mingwei Li , Lu Shen , Siqi Zheng , Bofeng Cai , Shenhao Wang