Related papers: Stronger Calibration Lower Bounds via Sidestepping
Recent successes of game-theoretic formulations in ML have caused a resurgence of research interest in differentiable games. Overwhelmingly, that research focuses on methods and upper bounds on their speed of convergence. In this work, we…
In this work, we establish lower-bounds against memory bounded algorithms for distinguishing between natural pairs of related distributions from samples that arrive in a streaming setting. In our first result, we show that any algorithm…
The sharpest known high probability generalization bounds for uniformly stable algorithms (Feldman, Vondr\'{a}k, 2018, 2019), (Bousquet, Klochkov, Zhivotovskiy, 2020) contain a generally inevitable sampling error term of order…
Finding optimal policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is challenging due to their uncountable state spaces when transformed into fully observable Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) using belief states.…
We study Online Convex Optimization (OCO) with adversarial constraints, where an online algorithm must make sequential decisions to minimize both convex loss functions and cumulative constraint violations. We focus on a setting where the…
In this paper, we consider the multi-armed bandit problem with high-dimensional features. First, we prove a minimax lower bound, $\mathcal{O}\big((\log d)^{\frac{\alpha+1}{2}}T^{\frac{1-\alpha}{2}}+\log T\big)$, for the cumulative regret,…
Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance…
We consider the problem setting of prediction with expert advice with possibly heavy-tailed losses, i.e. the only assumption on the losses is an upper bound on their second moments, denoted by $\theta$. We develop adaptive algorithms that…
Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions…
Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval…
Multicalibration extends classical calibration by requiring predictions to be unbiased over a rich collection of functions, encompassing both prediction slices and subpopulations. It has emerged as a powerful framework for fairness,…
For classification models based on neural networks, the maximum predicted class probability is often used as a confidence score. This score rarely predicts well the probability of making a correct prediction and requires a post-processing…
The goal of ordinal embedding is to represent items as points in a low-dimensional Euclidean space given a set of constraints in the form of distance comparisons like "item $i$ is closer to item $j$ than item $k$". Ordinal constraints like…
In this paper, we explore bounds on the expected risk when using deep neural networks for supervised classification from an information theoretic perspective. Firstly, we introduce model risk and fitting error, which are derived from…
Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…
Estimating frequencies of certain items among a population is a basic step in data analytics, which enables more advanced data analytics (e.g., heavy hitter identification, frequent pattern mining), client software optimization, and…
We clarify what fairness guarantees we can and cannot expect to follow from unconstrained machine learning. Specifically, we characterize when unconstrained learning on its own implies group calibration, that is, the outcome variable is…
The goal of online prediction with expert advice is to find a decision strategy which will perform almost as well as the best expert in a given pool of experts, on any sequence of outcomes. This problem has been widely studied and…
We address the online linear optimization problem when the actions of the forecaster are represented by binary vectors. Our goal is to understand the magnitude of the minimax regret for the worst possible set of actions. We study the…
A multiclass classifier is said to be top-label calibrated if the reported probability for the predicted class -- the top-label -- is calibrated, conditioned on the top-label. This conditioning on the top-label is absent in the closely…