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{We consider the problem of estimating causal influences between observed processes from time series possibly corrupted by errors in the time variable (dating errors) which are typical in palaeoclimatology, planetary science and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-04-20 D. A. Smirnov , N. Marwan , S. F. M. Breitenbach , F. Lechleitner , J. Kurths

Earth observation from satellite sensory data poses challenging problems, where machine learning is currently a key player. In recent years, Gaussian Process (GP) regression has excelled in biophysical parameter estimation tasks from…

The construction of valid and flexible cross-covariance functions is a fundamental task for modeling multivariate space-time data arising from climatological and oceanographical phenomena. Indeed, a suitable specification of the covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-23 Alfredo Alegría , Emilio Porcu , Reinhard Furrer , Jorge Mateu

Due to computational constraints, running global climate models (GCMs) for many years requires a lower spatial grid resolution (${\gtrsim}50$ km) than is optimal for accurately resolving important physical processes. Such processes are…

We generalize a previously proposed approach for nonlinear Granger causality of time series, based on radial basis function. The proposed model is not constrained to be additive in variables from the two time series and can approximate any…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-11 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Spatial fields in the Earth and environmental sciences are often available at multiple scales or resolutions. While coarse-scale data (e.g., from global circulation models) are often abundant, they lack the local detail provided by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Alejandro Calle-Saldarriaga , Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

Paleoclimatology -- the study of past climate -- is relevant beyond climate science itself, such as in archaeology and anthropology for understanding past human dispersal. Information about the Earth's paleoclimate comes from simulations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-16 Seth D. Axen , Alexandra Gessner , Christian Sommer , Nils Weitzel , Álvaro Tejero-Cantero

While the main causes of the temporal gravity variations observed by the GRACE space mission result from water mass redistributions occurring at the surface of the Earth in response to climatic and anthropogenic forcings (e.g., changes in…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-12-22 Mioara Mandea , Véronique Dehant , Anny Cazenave

Bayesian models based on Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible framework to predict spatially distributed variables with uncertainty. But the use of nonstationary priors, often necessary for capturing complex spatial patterns, makes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-02 Gabriel V Cardoso , Mike Pereira

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle, impacting climate dynamics and necessitating accurate estimation for sustainable land and agricultural management. While traditional methods of SOC estimation face…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Weiying Zhao , Natalia Efremova

Most of the metrics used for detecting a causal relationship among multiple time series ignore the effects of practical measurement impairments, such as finite sample effects, undersampling and measurement noise. It has been shown that…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Rahul Devendra , Ribhu Chopra , Kumar Appaiah

Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-12 Trevor Harris , Bo Li , Ryan Sriver

Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer an attractive method for regression over small, structured and correlated datasets. However, their deployment is hindered by computational costs and limited guidelines on how to apply GPs beyond simple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Kenza Tazi , Jihao Andreas Lin , Ross Viljoen , Alex Gardner , ST John , Hong Ge , Richard E. Turner

A Gaussian Process GP based ground segmentation method is proposed in this paper which is fully developed in a probabilistic framework. The proposed method tends to obtain a continuous realistic model of the ground. The LiDAR…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Pouria Mehrabi , Hamid D. Taghirad

With the advancement of neural networks, diverse methods for neural Granger causality have emerged, which demonstrate proficiency in handling complex data, and nonlinear relationships. However, the existing framework of neural Granger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Wanqi Zhou , Shuanghao Bai , Shujian Yu , Qibin Zhao , Badong Chen

Environmental modeling faces critical challenges in predicting ecosystem dynamics across unmonitored regions due to limited and geographically imbalanced observation data. This challenge is compounded by spatial heterogeneity, causing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Shiyuan Luo , Chonghao Qiu , Runlong Yu , Yiqun Xie , Xiaowei Jia

Physicists are starting to work in areas where noisy signal analysis is required. In these fields, such as Economics, Neuroscience, and Physics, the notion of causality should be interpreted as a statistical measure. We introduce to the lay…

At least two recent developments have put the spotlight on some significant gaps in the theory of multivariate time series. The recent interest in the dynamics of networks; and the advent, across a range of applications, of measuring…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-21 Victor Solo

Experiments in many fields of science and engineering yield data in the form of time series. The Fourier and wavelet transform-based nonparametric methods are used widely to study the spectral characteristics of these time series data.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 Mukeshwar Dhamala , Govindan Rangarajan , Mingzhou Ding

Geophysical and other natural processes often exhibit non-stationary covariances and this feature is important to take into account for statistical models that attempt to emulate the physical process. A convolution-based model is used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-23 Douglas Nychka , Dorit Hammerling , Mitchell Krock , Ashton Wiens