Related papers: A simple Markov chain for independent Bernoulli va…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods can be viewed as implementations of Markov chains with infinite memory. We derive a general condition for the convergence of a Monte Carlo method whose history dependence is contained within the simulated…
A method of constructing Markov chains on finite state spaces is provided. The chain is specified by three constraints: stationarity, dependence and marginal distributions. The generalized Pythagorean theorem in information geometry plays a…
Consider a discrete-time optimal selection problem where one observes a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials and receives a nonnegative reward upon stopping on a success. The aim is to find a single-choice strategy that maximises the…
The mixing time of a Markov chain determines how fast the iterates of the Markov chain converge to the stationary distribution; however, it does not control the dependencies between samples along the Markov chain. In this paper, we study…
We present a novel method for computing reachability probabilities of parametric discrete-time Markov chains whose transition probabilities are fractions of polynomials over a set of parameters. Our algorithm is based on two key…
We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…
We study the problem of generating a sample from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain, given a method to simulate the chain. We give an approximation algorithm for the case of a random walk on a regular graph with n vertices that…
Sampling from the conditional (or posterior) probability distribution of the latent states of a Hidden Markov Model, given the realization of the observed process, is a non-trivial problem in the context of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To do…
We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…
We study very simple sorting algorithms based on a probabilistic comparator model. In our model, errors in comparing two elements are due to (1) the energy or effort put in the comparison and (2) the difference between the compared…
The paper is concerned with approximating the distribution of a sum W of n integer valued random variables Y_i, whose distributions depend on the state of an underlying Markov chain X. The approximation is in terms of a translated Poisson…
Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which automatically tune their parameters based on past samples, have proved extremely useful in practice. The self-tuning mechanism makes them `non-Markovian', which means that their…
We consider irreversible Markov chains on finite commutative rings randomly generated using both addition and multiplication. We restrict ourselves to the case where the addition is uniformly random and multiplication is arbitrary. We first…
We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…
We analyze the extreme value dependence of independent, not necessarily identically distributed multivariate regularly varying random vectors. More specifically, we propose estimators of the spectral measure locally at some time point and…
Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…
In this work we present a non-reversible, tuning- and rejection-free Markov chain Monte Carlo which naturally fits in the framework of hit-and-run. The sampler only requires access to the gradient of the log-density function, hence the…
Slice sampling is an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from an unnormalized density with acceptance ratio always $1$. However, when the variable to sample is unbounded, its "stepping-out" heuristic works only locally,…
We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…
We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…