Related papers: On the Optimization of Approximate Control Variate…

In this paper, we derive closed-form estimators for the parameters of certain exponential family distributions through the maximum a posteriori (MAP) equations. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed…

Metamodels, or the regression analysis of Monte Carlo simulation results, provide a powerful tool to summarize simulation findings. However, an underutilized approach is the multilevel metamodel (MLMM) that accounts for the dependent data…

We propose a new framework of variance-reduced Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods for sampling from an $L$-smooth and $m$-strongly log-concave distribution, based on a unified formulation of biased and unbiased variance reduction…

This paper proposes a family of weighted batch means variance estimators, which are computationally efficient and can be conveniently applied in practice. The focus is on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and estimation of the asymptotic…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

This paper considers the problem of optimizing the average tracking error for an elliptic partial differential equation with an uncertain lognormal diffusion coefficient. In particular, the application of the multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo…

We present a multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm with adaptively refined meshes and accurately computed stopping-criteria utilizing adjoint-based a posteriori error analysis for differential equations. This is in contrast to classical…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides asymptotically consistent estimates of intractable posterior expectations as the number of iterations tends to infinity. However, in large data applications, MCMC can be computationally expensive per…

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

Modern quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods often capture electron correlation through both explicitly correlating Jastrow factors and small to mid-sized configuration interaction (CI) expansions. Here, we study the additional optimization…

This work introduces meta estimators that combine multiple multifidelity techniques based on control variates, importance sampling, and information reuse to yield a quasi-multiplicative amount of variance reduction. The proposed meta…

Obtaining accurate solutions to the Schr\"odinger equation is the key challenge in computational quantum chemistry. Deep-learning-based Variational Monte Carlo (DL-VMC) has recently outperformed conventional approaches in terms of accuracy,…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) produces a correlated sample for estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop so that we have good estimates of the desired quantities?…

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating expectations with respect to continuous un-normalized probability distributions. MCMC estimators typically have higher variance than…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…

In statistical analysis, Monte Carlo (MC) stands as a classical numerical integration method. When encountering challenging sample problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly employed method. However, the MCMC estimator is biased…

Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) extracted from satellite imagery are the only wind observations with good global coverage. They are important features for feeding numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Several Bayesian models have…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

We introduce a new algorithm for approximate inference that combines reparametrization, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We construct a very flexible implicit variational distribution synthesized by an arbitrary Markov…